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Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data

Author

Listed:
  • Xuebin Zhang
  • Lisa Alexander
  • Gabriele C. Hegerl
  • Philip Jones
  • Albert Klein Tank
  • Thomas C. Peterson
  • Blair Trewin
  • Francis W. Zwiers

Abstract

Indices for climate variability and extremes have been used for a long time, often by assessing days with temperature or precipitation observations above or below specific physically‐based thresholds. While these indices provided insight into local conditions, few physically based thresholds have relevance in all parts of the world. Therefore, indices of extremes evolved over time and now often focus on relative thresholds that describe features in the tails of the distributions of meteorological variables. In order to help understand how extremes are changing globally, a subset of the wide range of possible indices is now being coordinated internationally which allows the results of studies from different parts of the world to fit together seamlessly. This paper reviews these as well as other indices of extremes and documents the obstacles to robustly calculating and analyzing indices and the methods developed to overcome these obstacles. Gridding indices are necessary in order to compare observations with climate model output. However, gridding indices from daily data are not always straightforward because averaging daily information from many stations tends to dampen gridded extremes. The paper describes recent progress in attribution of the changes in gridded indices of extremes that demonstrates human influence on the probability of extremes. The paper also describes model projections of the future and wraps up with a discussion of ongoing efforts to refine indices of extremes as they are being readied to contribute to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:851–870. doi: 10.1002/wcc.147 This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

Suggested Citation

  • Xuebin Zhang & Lisa Alexander & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Philip Jones & Albert Klein Tank & Thomas C. Peterson & Blair Trewin & Francis W. Zwiers, 2011. "Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(6), pages 851-870, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:2:y:2011:i:6:p:851-870
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.147
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    1. Qiongfang Li & Tianshan Zeng & Qihui Chen & Xingye Han & Xi Weng & Pengfei He & Zhengmo Zhou & Yao Du, 2023. "Spatio-temporal changes in daily extreme precipitation for the Lancang–Mekong River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 641-672, January.
    2. E. Pastén-Zapata & T. Eberhart & K. H. Jensen & J. C. Refsgaard & T. O. Sonnenborg, 2022. "Towards a More Robust Evaluation of Climate Model and Hydrological Impact Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3545-3560, August.
    3. S. Ansa Thasneem & N. R. Chithra & Santosh G. Thampi, 2019. "Analysis of extreme precipitation and its variability under climate change in a river basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 1169-1190, September.
    4. Jose A. Marengo & Marcelo E. Seluchi & Ana Paula Cunha & Luz Adriana Cuartas & Demerval Goncalves & Vinicius B. Sperling & Andrea M. Ramos & Giovanni Dolif & Silvia Saito & Fabiani Bender & Tarcio Roc, 2023. "Heavy rainfall associated with floods in southeastern Brazil in November–December 2021," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3617-3644, April.
    5. Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi & Mohammad Reza Najafi & Harsimrenjit Singh & Markus Schnorbus, 2021. "Spatial and temporal changes in climate extremes over northwestern North America: the influence of internal climate variability and external forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Lukas Brunner & Aiko Voigt, 2024. "Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Amanda de O. Regueira & Henderson Silva Wanderley, 2022. "Changes in rainfall rates and increased number of extreme rainfall events in Rio de Janeiro city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3833-3847, December.
    8. Soledad Collazo & Mariana Barrucand & Matilde Rusticucci, 2022. "Evaluation of CMIP6 models in the representation of observed extreme temperature indices trends in South America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-21, May.
    9. Helbling, Marc & Auer, Daniel & Meierrieks, Daniel & Mistry, Malcolm & Schaub, Max, 2021. "Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 169(1-2), pages 1-1.
    10. Berlemann, Michael & Eurich, Marina, 2021. "Natural hazard risk and life satisfaction – Empirical evidence for hurricanes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    11. Gareth J. Marshall & Kirsti Jylhä & Sonja Kivinen & Mikko Laapas & Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, 2020. "The role of atmospheric circulation patterns in driving recent changes in indices of extreme seasonal precipitation across Arctic Fennoscandia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 741-759, September.
    12. Peihua Qin & Zhenghui Xie & Binghao Jia & Rui Han & Buchun Liu, 2023. "Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-21, August.
    13. Derbetini A. Vondou & Guy Merlin Guenang & Tchotchou Lucie Angennes Djiotang & Pierre Honore Kamsu-Tamo, 2021. "Trends and Interannual Variability of Extreme Rainfall Indices over Cameroon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-12, June.
    14. Xiaoyan Liang & Zhenmin Niu & Xiaolong Li, 2023. "Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Climate Events in Northwestern China from 1960 to 2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Pablo Méndez-Lázaro & Frank E. Muller-Karger & Daniel Otis & Matthew J. McCarthy & Marisol Peña-Orellana, 2014. "Assessing Climate Variability Effects on Dengue Incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    16. Christopher J. Picard & Jonathan M. Winter & Charlotte Cockburn & Janel Hanrahan & Natalie G. Teale & Patrick J. Clemins & Brian Beckage, 2023. "Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-26, June.
    17. Schmitt, Jonas & Offermann, Frank & Söder, Mareike & Frühauf, Cathleen & Finger, Robert, 2022. "Extreme weather events cause significant crop yield losses at the farm level in German agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

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