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The Timing and Intensity of Social Distancing to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve: The Case of Spain

Author

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  • Miguel Casares

    (Departamento de Economía and INARBE, Universidad Pública de Navarra, Campus de ArrosadÍa, 31006 Pamplona, Spain
    Current address: Departamento de Economía and INARBE, Universidad Pública de Navarra, 31006 Pamplona, Spain.
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Hashmat Khan

    (Department of Economics, Carleton University, C-870 Loeb Building, 1125 Colonel By Driver, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The continued spread of COVID-19 suggests a significant possibility of reimposing the lockdowns and stricter social distancing similar to the early phase of pandemic control. We present a dynamic model to quantify the impact of isolation for the contagion curves. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain to study the effects of the isolation enforcement following the declaration of the state of alarm (14 March 2020). The simulations indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are crucial for the COVID-19 spread. For example, a 4-day earlier intervention for social distancing would have reduced the number of COVID-19 infected people by 67%. The model also informs us that the isolation enforcement does not delay the peak day of the epidemic but slows down its end. When relaxing social distancing, a reduction of the contagion probability (with the generalization of preventive actions, such as face mask wearing and hands sanitizing) is needed to overcome the effect of a rise in the number of interpersonal encounters. We report a threshold level for the contagion pace to avoid a second COVID-19 outbreak in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Casares & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "The Timing and Intensity of Social Distancing to Flatten the COVID-19 Curve: The Case of Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:19:p:7283-:d:424087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. James H. Stock, 2020. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus," NBER Working Papers 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zen Yang Ang & Kit Yee Cheah & Md. Sharif Shakirah & Weng Hong Fun & Jailani Anis-Syakira & Yuke-Lin Kong & Sondi Sararaks, 2021. "Malaysia’s Health Systems Response to COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Eugenio F. Sánchez-Úbeda & Pedro Sánchez-Martín & Macarena Torrego-Ellacuría & Ángel Del Rey-Mejías & Manuel F. Morales-Contreras & José-Luis Puerta, 2021. "Flexibility and Bed Margins of the Community of Madrid’s Hospitals during the First Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Xue Zhang & Mildred E. Warner, 2020. "COVID-19 Policy Differences across US States: Shutdowns, Reopening, and Mask Mandates," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-17, December.

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