IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v16y2019i5p890-d212973.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study

Author

Listed:
  • Sanjib Saha

    (Health Economics Unit, Department of Clinical Science (Malmö), Lund University, Medicon Village, Scheelevägen 2, SE-22381, Lund, Sweden)

  • Jonas Nordstrom

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, DK-1958 Frederiksberg, Denmark
    Lund University School of Economics and Management, Agrifood Economics Centre, SE-22007 Lund, Sweden)

  • Ulf-G Gerdtham

    (Health Economics Unit, Department of Clinical Science (Malmö), Lund University, Medicon Village, Scheelevägen 2, SE-22381, Lund, Sweden
    Department of Economics, Lund University, SE-22363 Lund, Sweden)

  • Irene Mattisson

    (National Food Agency, SE-75126 Uppsala, Sweden)

  • Peter M Nilsson

    (Department of Emergency Care and Internal Medicine, Skane University Hospital, SE-20502 Malmo, Sweden
    Department of Clinical Sciences (Malmo), Lund University, SE-20502 Lund, Sweden)

  • Peter Scarborough

    (British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention and NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Oxford, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX37LF, UK)

Abstract

The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations was performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). The model predicts that 6405 (95% UI: 5086–7086) deaths could be prevented or delayed if the Swedish population could adhere to official dietary recommendations in a year. More deaths would be saved for men than women. The recommendations for fruits and vegetables could have saved 47% of the deaths, followed by fiber intake (32%). For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more compared to other dietary components, while for women dietary fiber was the prominent factor. Public health policies should consider ensuring healthy eating practices for the Swedish population.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjib Saha & Jonas Nordstrom & Ulf-G Gerdtham & Irene Mattisson & Peter M Nilsson & Peter Scarborough, 2019. "Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:5:p:890-:d:212973
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/5/890/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/5/890/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irz, Xavier & Leroy, Pascal & Réquillart, Vincent & Soler, Louis-Georges, 2015. "Economic assessment of nutritional recommendations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 188-210.
    2. Cliona Ni Mhurchu & Helen Eyles & Murat Genc & Peter Scarborough & Mike Rayner & Anja Mizdrak & Kelechi Nnoaham & Tony Blakely, 2015. "Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Helen Eyles & Cliona Ni Mhurchu & Nhung Nghiem & Tony Blakely, 2012. "Food Pricing Strategies, Population Diets, and Non-Communicable Disease: A Systematic Review of Simulation Studies," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Nordström, Jonas & Thunström, Linda, 2009. "The impact of tax reforms designed to encourage healthier grain consumption," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 622-634, May.
    5. Homer, J.B. & Hirsch, G.B., 2006. "System dynamics modeling for public health: Background and opportunities," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(3), pages 452-458.
    6. Xin Sun & Thomas Faunce, 2008. "Decision-analytical modelling in health-care economic evaluations," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 9(4), pages 313-323, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saha, Sanjib & Nordström, Jonas & Scarborough, Peter & Thunström, Linda & Gerdtham, Ulf-G., 2021. "In search of an appropriate mix of taxes and subsidies on nutrients and food: A modelling study of the effectiveness on health-related consumption and mortality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    2. Härkänen, Tommi & Kotakorpi, Kaisa & Pietinen, Pirjo & Pirttilä, Jukka & Reinivuo, Heli & Suoniemi, Ilpo, 2014. "The welfare effects of health-based food tax policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 196-206.
    3. Irz, Xavier & Leroy, Pascal & Réquillart, Vincent & Soler, Louis-Georges, 2015. "Economic assessment of nutritional recommendations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 188-210.
    4. Irz, Xavier & Leroy, Pascal & Réquillart, Vincent & Soler, Louis-Georges, 2016. "Welfare and sustainability effects of dietary recommendations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 139-155.
    5. Tony Blakely & Nhung Nghiem & Murat Genc & Anja Mizdrak & Linda Cobiac & Cliona Ni Mhurchu & Boyd Swinburn & Peter Scarborough & Christine Cleghorn, 2020. "Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Cliona Ni Mhurchu & Helen Eyles & Murat Genc & Peter Scarborough & Mike Rayner & Anja Mizdrak & Kelechi Nnoaham & Tony Blakely, 2015. "Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Liana Jacobi & Nhung Nghiem & Andrés Ramírez‐Hassan & Tony Blakely, 2021. "Food Price Elasticities for Policy Interventions: Estimates from a Virtual Supermarket Experiment in a Multistage Demand Analysis with (Expert) Prior Information," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 457-490, December.
    8. Allais, Olivier & Leroy, Pascal & Mink, Julia, 2020. "Changes in food purchases at retirement in France," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Stéphan Marette, 2017. "Jill E. Hobbs, Stavroula Malla, Eric K. Sogah and May T. Yeung, 2014, Regulating Health Foods. Policy Challenges and Consumer Conundrums," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 98(1), pages 93-94, July.
    10. Chang, Pao-Long & Ho, Shu-Ping & Hsu, Chiung-Wen, 2013. "Dynamic simulation of government subsidy policy effects on solar water heaters installation in Taiwan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 385-396.
    11. Meimei Wang & Steffen Flessa, 2020. "Modelling Covid-19 under uncertainty: what can we expect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(5), pages 665-668, July.
    12. Karen Minyard & Tina A. Smith & Richard Turner & Bobby Milstein & Lori Solomon, 2018. "Community and programmatic factors influencing effective use of system dynamic models," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 154-171, January.
    13. Irz, Xavier & Mazzocchi, Mario & Réquillart, Vincent & Soler, Louis-Georges, 2015. "Research in Food Economics: past trends and new challenges," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 96(01), pages 187-237, March.
    14. Bianca Cezara Archip & Ioan Banatean-Dunea & Dacinia Crina Petrescu & Ruxandra Malina Petrescu-Mag, 2023. "Determinants of Food Waste in Cluj-Napoca (Romania): A Community-Based System Dynamics Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-22, January.
    15. Hazhir Rahmandad, 2012. "Impact of Growth Opportunities and Competition on Firm-Level Capability Development Trade-offs," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 138-154, February.
    16. Anne Magnus & Linda Cobiac & Julie Brimblecombe & Mark Chatfield & Anthony Gunther & Megan Ferguson & Marj Moodie, 2018. "The cost-effectiveness of a 20% price discount on fruit, vegetables, diet drinks and water, trialled in remote Australia to improve Indigenous health," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, September.
    17. Erika Palmer, 2018. "The Heavy Cost of Care: Systemic Challenges in Norwegian Work Absenteeism," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-17, June.
    18. Sarah Gerritsen & Sophia Harré & Boyd Swinburn & David Rees & Ana Renker-Darby & Ann E. Bartos & Wilma E. Waterlander, 2019. "Systemic Barriers and Equitable Interventions to Improve Vegetable and Fruit Intake in Children: Interviews with National Food System Actors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    19. Le, Ha N.D. & Gold, Lisa & Abbott, Gavin & Crawford, David & McNaughton, Sarah A. & Mhurchu, Cliona Ni & Pollard, Christina & Ball, Kylie, 2016. "Economic evaluation of price discounts and skill-building strategies on purchase and consumption of healthy food and beverages: The SHELf randomized controlled trial," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 83-91.
    20. Montira J. Pongsiri & Andrea M. Bassi, 2021. "A Systems Understanding Underpins Actions at the Climate and Health Nexus," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-15, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:5:p:890-:d:212973. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.