IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v12y2024i2p47-d1338689.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring Distributions of House Prices and House Price Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Jiong Liu

    (Department of Physics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0011, USA)

  • Hamed Farahani

    (Department of Physics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0011, USA)

  • R. A. Serota

    (Department of Physics, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0011, USA)

Abstract

We use house prices (HP) and house price indices (HPI) as a proxy to income distribution. Specifically, we analyze distribution of sale prices in the 1970–2010 window of over 116,000 single-family homes in Hamilton County, Ohio, including Cincinnati metro area of about 2.2 million people. We also analyze distributions of HPI, published by Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), for nearly 18,000 US ZIP codes that cover a period of over 40 years starting in 1980’s. If HP can be viewed as a first derivative of income, HPI can be viewed as its second derivative. We use generalized beta (GB) family of functions to fit distributions of HP and HPI since GB naturally arises from the models of economic exchange described by stochastic differential equations. Our main finding is that HP and multi-year HPI exhibit a negative Dragon King (nDK) behavior, wherein power-law distribution tail gives way to an abrupt decay to a finite upper limit value, which is similar to our recent findings for realized volatility of S&P500 index in the US stock market. This type of tail behavior is best fitted by a modified GB (mGB) distribution. Tails of single-year HPI appear to show more consistency with power-law behavior, which is better described by a GB Prime (GB2) distribution. We supplement full distribution fits by mGB and GB2 with direct linear fits (LF) of the tails. Our numerical procedure relies on evaluation of confidence intervals (CI) of the fits, as well as of p -values that give the likelihood that data come from the fitted distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiong Liu & Hamed Farahani & R. A. Serota, 2024. "Exploring Distributions of House Prices and House Price Indices," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:2:p:47-:d:1338689
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/2/47/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/2/47/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    2. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    3. Duangkamon Chotikapanich & William E. Griffiths & Gholamreza Hajargasht & Wasana Karunarathne & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2018. "Using the GB2 Income Distribution: A Review," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2036, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Ma, Tao & Holden, John G. & Serota, R.A., 2013. "Distribution of wealth in a network model of the economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(10), pages 2434-2441.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiong Liu & Hamed Farahani & R. A. Serota, 2023. "Exploring Distributions of House Prices and House Price Indices," Papers 2312.14325, arXiv.org.
    2. Stephen Billings & Thomas Thibodeau, 2011. "Intrametropolitan Decentralization: Is Government Structure Capitalized in Residential Property Values?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 416-450, May.
    3. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Li, Pei, 2015. "Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-196.
    4. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    5. Denis Conniffe & David Duffy, 1999. "Irish House Price Indices — Methodological Issues," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 403-423.
    6. Jiong Liu & R. A. Serota, 2023. "Rethinking Generalized Beta family of distributions," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 96(2), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Wang, Ferdinand T. & Zorn, Peter M., 1997. "Estimating House Price Growth with Repeat Sales Data: What's the Aim of the Game?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 93-118, June.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2019. "The Total Risk Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 25653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Victor Ginsburgh & Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2006. "On the computation of art indices in art," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Anthony Lepinteur & Sofie R. Waltl, 2020. "Tracking Owners’ Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp299, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Arnaud Simon, 2009. "Quantifying the reversibility phenomenon for the repeat-sales index," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(1), pages 27-62.
    12. Baroni, Michel & Barthelemy, Fabrice & Mokrane, Madhi, 2003. "Which Capital Growth Index for the Paris Residential Market?," ESSEC Working Papers DR 03002, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    13. William M. Doerner & Andrew V. Leventis, 2015. "Distressed Sales and the FHFA House Price Index," Journal of Housing Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 127-146, January.
    14. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng, 2001. "The Bias of the RSR Estimator and the Accuracy of Some Alternatives," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm174, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
    15. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    16. Joseph T. L. Ooi & Thao T. T. Le, 2012. "New Supply and Price Dynamics in the Singapore Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(7), pages 1435-1451, May.
    17. Robert Hill & Radoslaw Trojanek, 2020. "House Price Indexes for Warsaw: An Evaluation of Competing Methods," Graz Economics Papers 2020-08, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    18. Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2010. "House Price-Volume Dynamics: Evidence from 12 Cities in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 32(1), pages 75-100.
    19. Billings, Stephen B., 2011. "Estimating the value of a new transit option," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 525-536.
    20. Yongheng Deng & Joseph Gyourko & Jing Wu, 2012. "Land and Housing Price Measurement in China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:2:p:47-:d:1338689. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.