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China and Countries along the “Belt and Road”: Agricultural Trade Volatility Decomposition and Food Security

Author

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  • Lunzheng Zhou

    (College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)

  • Guangji Tong

    (College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)

  • Jiaguo Qi

    (Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA)

  • Lu He

    (College of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China)

Abstract

Agricultural products are essential for human survival, and strengthening agricultural trade cooperation between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” (B&R) can promote food security, but there are few studies on bilateral trade fluctuation factors in the literature. This paper uses the modified multi-country multi-product CMS (constant market share) model and the two-country multi-product CMS model to decompose the fluctuation of agricultural trade between China and B&R countries by stage, region, and agricultural product type. The results show that in recent years, in the fluctuation of China’s exports to B&R countries, in overall agricultural products, the demand effect plays a major hindering role, accounting for −9.2%; in the region, Southeast Asia has the largest share of trade, which is mainly pulled by the joint demand effect, structural effect and competitiveness effect; in specific agricultural products, animal, fruit and vegetable, and food processing products are mainly pulled by competitiveness. In the fluctuation of B&R countries’ export to China, in overall agricultural products, the demand effect pulls the largest share, accounting for 72.55%; in the region, Southeast Asia is mainly driven by the joint pull of demand effect, structural effect. and competitiveness effect; in specific agricultural products, animal, fruit and vegetable, and food processing products are mainly driven by the pull of demand effect. The findings of this paper can provide a basis for making decisions on food security cooperation between China and B&R countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lunzheng Zhou & Guangji Tong & Jiaguo Qi & Lu He, 2022. "China and Countries along the “Belt and Road”: Agricultural Trade Volatility Decomposition and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:11:p:1850-:d:963300
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Milana, Carlo, 1988. "Constant-market-shares analysis and index number theory," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 453-478.
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