A Decision-Making Framework for Public–Private Partnership Model Selection in the Space Sector: Policy and Market Dynamics Across Countries

The increasing complexity and commercialization of the global space sector have elevated the strategic role of public–private partnerships (PPPs). However, the criteria for selecting suitable PPP models remain underexplored, particularly regarding the influence of national policy and market environments. This study proposes a decision-making framework that links six indicators—national strategic goals, government role preferences, regulatory structures, capital access, private-sector capabilities, and commercial demand—to four distinct PPP models in the space sector. Drawing on Eisenhardt’s multi-case theory-building methodology, this study analyzes PPP evolution in four countries representing mature, emerging, and nascent countries: the United States, Japan, India, and the United Arab Emirates. The cross-case analysis reveals that high-autonomy PPP models emerge only when institutional, financial, and market factors are systemically aligned. Divergence in PPP forms is driven not solely by technical capabilities but also by governance postures and regulatory designs. The findings contribute to addressing ongoing challenges related to policy reform and increasing private-sector involvement in the space sector by developing a practical decision-making tool for public and private-sector actors engaged in space governance. Specifically, the diagnostic framework enables stakeholders to assess national readiness and select appropriate PPP models. It also supports strategic planning by highlighting the reforms and capacity-building measures required for countries with nascent and emerging economies to transition from government-led missions to commercially integrated space ecosystems.