IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fis/journl/220305.html

Impact of International Environmental Agreements on Procyclicality of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Bige KUCUKEFE
  • Nilüfer KAYA KANLI

Abstract

The relationship between cyclic components of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) growth is procyclical for a typical economy. Potential effects of a policy decision on the environment require policymakers to consider the impact of GDP growth on CO2 emissions for a country. This paper investigates the changing dynamics of procyclicality of CO2 emissions with respect to GDP growth following the Kyoto protocol which represents a strong commitment for a green economy by the industrialized countries. We compare two time periods (1970-2005 and 2006-2017) before and after the Kyoto Protocol by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficients and using linear regression models for 48 countries which produced 79% of the world total CO2 emissions in 2017. Our study finds that the procyclicality of the CO2 emissions and GDP growth decreased in 29 countries and increased in 19 countries in the period 2006-2017 following the Kyoto Protocol. We extract the cyclical components by Hodrick-Prescot filter. We also build VAR models and compute impulse response functions, which agree with the statistical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Bige KUCUKEFE & Nilüfer KAYA KANLI, 2022. "Impact of International Environmental Agreements on Procyclicality of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Business Cycles," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:fis:journl:220305
    DOI: 10.25295/fsecon.1072528
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2249579
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.25295/fsecon.1072528?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sheldon, Tamara L., 2017. "Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on carbon dioxide emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 289-297.
    2. Doda, Baran, 2014. "Evidence on business cycles and CO2 emissions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 214-227.
    3. Risa Kumazawa & Michael Callaghan, 2012. "The effect of the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 201-210, January.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    5. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2013. "The Effect of the Kyoto Protocol on Carbon Emissions," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 731-757, September.
    6. Khan, Hashmat & Metaxoglou, Konstantinos & Knittel, Christopher R. & Papineau, Maya, 2019. "Carbon emissions and business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Aakvik, Arild & Tjøtta, Sigve, 2011. "Do collective actions clear common air? The effect of international environmental protocols on sulphur emissions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 343-351, June.
    8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    9. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Selden, Thomas M., 1995. "Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 85-101, May.
    10. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
    11. Almer, Christian & Winkler, Ralph, 2017. "Analyzing the effectiveness of international environmental policies: The case of the Kyoto Protocol," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-151.
    12. Joseph E. Aldy, 2007. "Divergence in State-Level Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(3), pages 353-369.
    13. Maamoun, Nada, 2019. "The Kyoto protocol: Empirical evidence of a hidden success," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 227-256.
    14. Doda, Baran, 2014. "Evidence on business cycles and CO2 emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57009, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    16. Yoomi Kim & Katsuya Tanaka & Shunji Matsuoka, 2020. "Environmental and economic effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    17. Bratberg, Espen & Tjotta, Sigve & Oines, Torgeir, 2005. "Do voluntary international environmental agreements work?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 583-597, November.
    18. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    19. Joseph Aldy, 2006. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 533-555, April.
    20. Jürg Vollenweider, 2013. "The effectiveness of international environmental agreements," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 343-367, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    2. Doda, Baran, 2014. "Evidence on business cycles and CO2 emissions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 214-227.
    3. Stern, David I., 2014. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Primer," Working Papers 249424, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    4. Yoomi Kim & Katsuya Tanaka & Shunji Matsuoka, 2020. "Environmental and economic effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Chi-Yang Chu & Chien-Ho Wang & Wan-Jiun Chen, 2025. "Does the Kyoto Protocol have a structural impact on the environmental Kuznets curve? An application of the varying coefficient model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 729-758, February.
    6. Klarl, Torben, 2020. "The response of CO2 emissions to the business cycle: New evidence for the U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Lake, James & Linask, Maia K., 2016. "Could tariffs be pro-cyclical?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 124-146.
    8. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Gianluigi Cisco & Maria Ferrara, 2023. "Green preferences," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3211-3253, April.
    9. Rios, Vicente & Gianmoena, Lisa, 2018. "Convergence in CO2 emissions: A spatial economic analysis with cross-country interactions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 222-238.
    10. Isaksen, Elisabeth Thuestad, 2020. "Have international pollution protocols made a difference?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Meng Yan & Kai Shi, 2021. "Evidence on clean energy consumption and business cycle: A global perspective," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 230-255, August.
    12. Baran Doda & Simon Quemin & Luca Taschini, 2017. "A Theory of Gains from Trade in Multilaterally Linked ETSs," Working Papers 1706, Chaire Economie du climat.
    13. Busato, Francesco & Chiarini, Bruno & Cisco, Gianluigi & Ferrara, Maria, 2021. "Greta Thunberg effect and Business Cycle Dynamics: A DSGE model," MPRA Paper 110141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gozgor, Giray & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2019. "Dependence structure between business cycles and CO2 emissions in the U.S.: Evidence from the time-varying Markov-Switching Copula models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    15. Doda, Baran & Quemin, Simon & Taschini, Luca, 2019. "Linking permit markets multilaterally," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    16. Stern, David, 2014. "Rethinking the Emissions-Income Relationship in Terms of Growth Rates," 2014 Conference (58th), February 4-7, 2014, Port Macquarie, Australia 165877, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    17. Ivanovski, Kris & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa, 2020. "Convergence and determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia: A regional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Maamoun, Nada, 2019. "The Kyoto protocol: Empirical evidence of a hidden success," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 227-256.
    19. Stern, David I. & Gerlagh, Reyer & Burke, Paul J., 2017. "Modeling the emissions–income relationship using long-run growth rates," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 699-724, December.
    20. Baran Doda, 2012. "Evidence on CO2 emissions and business cycles," GRI Working Papers 78, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fis:journl:220305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emre Atsan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://dergipark.org.tr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.