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The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs


  • Lucio Sarno
  • Daniel L. Thornton


Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are commonly used to investigate the effect of structural shocks on economic variables. The identifying restrictions imposed in many of these exercises have been criticized in the literature. This paper extends this literature by showing that, if the SVAR includes one or more variables that are efficient in the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the identifying restrictions frequently imposed in SVARs cannot be satisfied. The authors argue that this analysis will likely apply to VARs that include variables that are consistent with weaker forms of the efficient market hypothesis, especially when the data are measured at the monthly or quarterly frequencies, as is frequently the case.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-60.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2004:i:jan:p:49-60:n:v.86no.1

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2016. "Excess liquidity and the money market in the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 33-44.
    2. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    3. Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore & Shane Sherlund, 2008. "GSEs, Mortgage Rates, and Secondary Market Activities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 343-363, April.
    4. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
    5. Gultekin Isiklar, 2005. "Structural VAR identification in asset markets using short-run market inefficiencies," Econometrics 0501001, EconWPA, revised 02 Jan 2005.
    6. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News," LEM Papers Series 2004/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Ida Wolden Bache, 2006. "Assessing the structural VAR approach to exchange rate pass-through," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 309, Society for Computational Economics.

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