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A Back-of-the-Envelope Rule to Identify Atheoretical VARs

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  • Urzúa, Carlos M.

Abstract

Vector autoregressive models are often used in Macroeconomics to draw conclusions about the effects of policy innovations. However, those results depend on the researcher’s priors about the particular ordering of the variables. As an alternative, this paper presents a very simple rule based on the maximum entropy principle that can be used to find the “most likely” ordering. The proposal is illustrated in the case of a VAR model of the U.S. economy. It is found that monetary policy shocks are better represented by innovations in the federal funds rate rather than in non-borrowed reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Urzúa, Carlos M., 2008. "A Back-of-the-Envelope Rule to Identify Atheoretical VARs," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(2), November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:28:y:2008:i:2:a:1514
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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