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Have extended trading hours made agricultural commodity markets riskier?

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  • Nathan Kauffman

Abstract

Traders in agricultural commodity markets view volatility differently depending on their objectives. Producers generally dislike volatility and uncertainty and they trade on futures markets to lessen the risk associated with price changes. Nonproducers?traders with no direct involvement in producing or using the commodities themselves?seek to profit from uncertainty by predicting the path of futures prices. Producers are concerned that a recent extension of trading hours at commodity exchanges could lead to heightened volatility since trading is now taking place during the release of key government reports on commodity supply and demand. Kauffman examines the effect of extended trading hours on intraday corn futures markets and finds evidence of brief periods of elevated price volatility around the release of government reports. He concludes that producers whose long-term risk management strategies are not sensitive to brief spikes in intraday volatility are unlikely to be adversely affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Kauffman, 2013. "Have extended trading hours made agricultural commodity markets riskier?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 67-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:00007
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    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1094/2013-Have%20Extended%20Trading%20Hours%20Made%20Agricultural%20Commodity%20Markets%20Riskier%3F.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert & McKenzie, Andrew & Thomsen, Michael, 2016. "The Value of Government Information in an Era of Declining Budgets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235811, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Adjemian, Michael K. & Irwin, Scott H., 2020. "The market response to government crop news under different release regimes," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    3. Xuan Yao & Xiaofeng Hui & Kaican Kang, 2021. "Can night trading sessions improve forecasting performance of gold futures' volatility in China?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 849-860, August.
    4. Michael K Adjemian & Robert Johansson & Andrew McKenzie & Michael Thomsen, 2018. "Was the Missing 2013 WASDE Missed?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 653-671, December.
    5. Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin, 2014. "The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(2), pages 557-577.
    6. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ivan Indriawan & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Surprise and dispersion: informational impact of USDA announcements," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 113-126, January.
    7. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin, 2022. "To batch or not to batch? The release of USDA crop reports," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 143-154, January.
    8. Thomas A. P. de Boer & Cornelis Gardebroek & Joost M. E. Pennings & Andres Trujillo‐Barrera, 2022. "Intraday liquidity in soybean complex futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1189-1211, July.
    9. Kishore Joseph & Philip Garcia, 2018. "Intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non-trading and trading hour announcements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1188-1202, March.

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