IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/00066.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is China’s growth miracle over?

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng Liu

Abstract

The recent slowdown in China?s growth has caused concern about its long-term growth prospects. Evidence suggests that, before 2008, China?s growth miracle was driven primarily by productivity improvement following economic policy reforms. Since 2008, however, growth has become more dependent on investment and overall growth has slowed. If the recent reform plans can successfully address the country?s structural imbalances, China could maintain a solid growth rate that might help smooth its transition to high-income status.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu, 2015. "Is China’s growth miracle over?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00066
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2015-26.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Xiaodong Zhu, 2012. "Understanding China's Growth: Past, Present, and Future," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 103-124, Fall.
    3. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John C. Williams, 2015. "China, rates, and the outlook: may the (economic) force be with you," Speech 152, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Xu, Kun & Xu, Wenli, 2015. "中国政府消费支出对经济波动的传导机理分析 [Study on Influential Mechanism Between Government Expenditure of Consumption and Economic Fluctuation]," MPRA Paper 70994, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2015.
    3. Tomoyuki Iida & Kanako Shoji & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2018. "What Drives China's Growth? Evidence from Micro-level Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-19, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Justin Yifu & Wan, Guanghua & Morgan, Peter J., 2016. "Prospects for a re-acceleration of economic growth in the PRC," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 842-853.
    2. Tang, Rongsheng & Tang, Yang, 2022. "Market formation in China from 1978," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Chuantao Cui & Leona Shao-Zhi Li, 2019. "High-speed rail and inventory reduction: firm-level evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(25), pages 2715-2730, May.
    4. Michael Dotsey, 2019. "Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth," 2019 Meeting Papers 640, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Shang-Jin Wei & Zhuan Xie & Xiaobo Zhang, 2017. "From "Made in China" to "Innovated in China": Necessity, Prospect, and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 49-70, Winter.
    6. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fang, Lei & Herrendorf, Berthold, 2021. "High-skilled services and development in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Tasso Adamopoulos & Loren Brandt & Jessica Leight & Diego Restuccia, 2022. "Misallocation, Selection, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis With Panel Data From China," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1261-1282, May.
    9. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Tao, Kunyu, 2015. "Financial market reform – A new driver for China's economic growth?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Fan Duan & Bulent Unel, 2019. "Persistence of cities: Evidence from China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 663-676, May.
    11. Crafts, Nicholas & O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2014. "Twentieth Century Growth*This research has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546.," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 263-346, Elsevier.
    12. Fang Cai, 2023. "Regaining China's Resource Reallocative Efficiency to Boost Growth," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(1), pages 5-21, January.
    13. Weng, Liying & Xu, Changsheng & Yi, Ming, 2024. "Resource misallocation in China: Biased subsidies versus credit discrimination," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Yang, Mian & Yang, Fuxia & Sun, Chuanwang, 2018. "Factor market distortion correction, resource reallocation and potential productivity gains: An empirical study on China's heavy industry sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 270-279.
    15. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    16. Fang, Jing & He, Hui & Li, Nan, 2020. "China's rising IQ (Innovation Quotient) and growth: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    17. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Tao, Kunyu, 2015. "Financial market reform – A new driver for China's economic growth?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    18. Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis & Yu Zheng, 2018. "The Price of Growth: Consumption Insurance in China 1989–2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 1-35, October.
    19. Jong-Wha Lee, 2017. "China's economic growth and convergence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(11), pages 2455-2474, November.
    20. Shaghil Ahmed & Ricardo Correa & Daniel A. Dias & Nils Gornemann & Jasper Hoek & Anil Jain & Edith Liu & Anna Wong, 2022. "Global Spillovers of a Chinese Growth Slowdown," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.