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A new quarterly output measure for Texas

Author

Listed:
  • Franklin D. Berger
  • Keith R. Phillips

Abstract

Real gross domestic product is one of the most watched indicators of the U.S. business cycle. Yet at the state level, output measures are rarely used to track business conditions. Although the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates real gross state product (RGSP), the long release lag (usually about two and one-half years after the reporting year) and the annual periodicity of the data severely limit its usefulness. ; In this article, Frank Berger and Keith Phillips find that movements in quarterly personal income and various price measures can accurately explain movements in total Texas RGSP and in eleven broad industry groupings. Based on these findings, Berger and Phillips create quarterly measures of total and industry-specific Texas RGSP that will be available about four months after the reporting quarter. The new series represents a comprehensive measure of economic activity in the state that can be used along with other timely indicators, such as nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate, to gauge current business conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1995. "A new quarterly output measure for Texas," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 16-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1995:i:qiii:p:16-23
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    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/er/1995/er9503b.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franklin D. Berger & William T. Long, 1989. "The Texas industrial production index," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov, pages 21-38.
    2. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan S. Balke & Mine K. Yücel, 2000. "Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 2-10.
    2. Michelle T. Armesto & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Ahking, Francis, W. & Pattanapancha, Maneechit, 2000. "The Linkage Between State and National Output: A Case Study of Connecticut," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 30(2), pages 137-145, Fall.
    4. Michelle T. Armesto & Rub…N Hern¡Ndez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger, 2009. "Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 35-55, February.

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    Keywords

    Regional economics; Texas;

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