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A new quarterly output measure for Texas

Author

Listed:
  • Franklin D. Berger
  • Keith R. Phillips

Abstract

Real gross domestic product is one of the most watched indicators of the U.S. business cycle. Yet at the state level, output measures are rarely used to track business conditions. Although the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates real gross state product (RGSP), the long release lag (usually about two and one-half years after the reporting year) and the annual periodicity of the data severely limit its usefulness. ; In this article, Frank Berger and Keith Phillips find that movements in quarterly personal income and various price measures can accurately explain movements in total Texas RGSP and in eleven broad industry groupings. Based on these findings, Berger and Phillips create quarterly measures of total and industry-specific Texas RGSP that will be available about four months after the reporting quarter. The new series represents a comprehensive measure of economic activity in the state that can be used along with other timely indicators, such as nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate, to gauge current business conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1995. "A new quarterly output measure for Texas," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 16-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1995:i:qiii:p:16-23
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    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/er/1995/er9503b.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franklin D. Berger & William T. Long, III, 1989. "The Texas industrial production index," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov, pages 21-38.
    2. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    3. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahking, Francis, W. & Pattanapancha, Maneechit, 2000. "The Linkage Between State and National Output: A Case Study of Connecticut," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 30(2), pages 137-145, Fall.
    2. Nathan S. Balke & Mine K. Yücel, 2000. "Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 2-10.
    3. Michelle T. Armesto & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional economics ; Texas;

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