A new quarterly output measure for Texas
Real gross domestic product is one of the most watched indicators of the U.S. business cycle. Yet at the state level, output measures are rarely used to track business conditions. Although the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates real gross state product (RGSP), the long release lag (usually about two and one-half years after the reporting year) and the annual periodicity of the data severely limit its usefulness. ; In this article, Frank Berger and Keith Phillips find that movements in quarterly personal income and various price measures can accurately explain movements in total Texas RGSP and in eleven broad industry groupings. Based on these findings, Berger and Phillips create quarterly measures of total and industry-specific Texas RGSP that will be available about four months after the reporting quarter. The new series represents a comprehensive measure of economic activity in the state that can be used along with other timely indicators, such as nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate, to gauge current business conditions.
Volume (Year): (1995)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
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- Franklin D. Berger & William T. Long, III, 1989. "The Texas industrial production index," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov, pages 21-38.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1983.
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- Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
- Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-476, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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