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Evaluating the Eleventh District's Beige Book

  • Nathan S. Balke
  • Mine K. Yücel

In this study, Nathan Balke and Mine Yucel ask whether the Eleventh Federal Reserve District's Beige Book description contains timely information about economic activity within the District. They examine whether the Beige Book description tracks current Texas real gross state product (GSP) growth and current Texas employment growth. They also study whether the Beige Book has information about growth not present in other regional indicators that would have been available to analysts at the time of the Beige Book's release. They find that both the Beige Book summary and the average across sectors reflect Texas GSP and employment growth very well. These two measures of the Beige Book also have predictive content for one quarter ahead GSP growth. Balke and Yucel also find that the Eleventh District's Beige Book has information content for Texas economic activity over and above other state economic indicators such as Texas employment growth, personal income, or sectoral employment growth. Because the Beige Book is released at least one month earlier than employment data and at least two years before GSP data, its timeliness makes it a good tool for current regional economic analysis.

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File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/efr/2000/efr0004a.pdf
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its journal Economic and Financial Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Q IV ()
Pages: 2-10

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:2000:i:qiv:p:2-10
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  1. Balke, Nathan S & Petersen, D'Ann, 2002. "How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 114-36, February.
  2. David Fettig & Arthur J. Rolnick & David E. Runkle, 1999. "The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: A better mirror than crystal ball," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Mar, pages 10-13,28-32.
  3. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1995. "A new quarterly output measure for Texas," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 16-23.
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