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Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy: Is the Response of the Stock Market Rational?

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  • Ion-Iulian MARINESCU

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Alexandra HOROBET

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of the monetary policy conduct on the domestic capital market for a sample of developed countries where the capital market plays a significant role in the economy. We break down the policy rate innovations in rules-based and discretionary components in order to determine the degree of prudentiality in the monetary policy conduct and we study their accounts with respect to capital market rationality. The rules-based component is determined using an interpolated vanilla Taylor-rule policy rate at the event date and the discretionary component is obtained by subtracting the rules-based rate from the target monetary policy rate innovation. Using an event study approach, we analyze the impact of monetary policy components on the returns of the stock market and we determine that the conduct of the monetary policy can cause irrational responses of the capital market. More than that, we show, for the analyzed countries, that if the general level of discretion in the monetary policy is high the response of the stock market becomes increasingly erratic, indicating that forward guidance may help reduce uncertainty on capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ion-Iulian MARINESCU & Alexandra HOROBET, 2015. "Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy: Is the Response of the Stock Market Rational?," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 50-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:exp:econcs:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:50-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, King Fuei, 2023. "Effects of Monetary Policy Frameworks on Stock Market Volatilities: An Empirical Study of Global Economies," MPRA Paper 119755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:uii:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:138-149 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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