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Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15

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  • Gerard Keogh

    (Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

We model the relationship between asylum applications across the EU-15 and three key pull-force factors, GDP, the recognition rate (grants of refugee status as a percentage of all refugee decisions) and refugee stocks. A Dynamic Coefficient Random Effects Panel model is employed which captures both the country specific variance and temporal features. This model provides deeper insight into the relationship than has hitherto been possible. We show for Austria, Spain and possibly Belgium that the three predictive factors dominate while for other countries in the EU-15 country specific factors are more important. In relation to temporal effects we show both GDP and the recognition rate at the overall EU-15 level remain significant over time but refugee stock does not. We also show a downward level shift occurred in the elasticity of recognition rate in 2002 resulting in fewer refugees being recognised (i.e., granted refugee status) and, therefore, providing evidence that asylum policies have become more restrictive.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard Keogh, 2013. "Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 371-399.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:44:y:2013:i:3:p:371-399
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy J. Hatton, 2009. "The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 183-213, February.
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    5. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, December.
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    4. Alessandra Conte & Silvia Migali, 2019. "The role of conflict and organized violence in international forced migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(14), pages 393-424.
    5. Gerard Keogh, 2016. "Quantifying the Importance of Nationality in Determining International Protection Outcomes in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 247-270.
    6. Tausch, Arno, 2015. "Europe’s Refugee Crisis. Zur aktuellen politischen Ökonomie von Migration, Asyl und Integration in Europa [Europe's Refugee Crisis. On the current political economy of migration, asylum and integra," MPRA Paper 67400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Mathias Czaika & Mogens Hobolth, 2016. "Do restrictive asylum and visa policies increase irregular migration into Europe?," European Union Politics, , vol. 17(3), pages 345-365, September.

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