IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eso/journl/v44y2013i3p371-399.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15

Author

Listed:
  • Gerard Keogh

    (Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

We model the relationship between asylum applications across the EU-15 and three key pull-force factors, GDP, the recognition rate (grants of refugee status as a percentage of all refugee decisions) and refugee stocks. A Dynamic Coefficient Random Effects Panel model is employed which captures both the country specific variance and temporal features. This model provides deeper insight into the relationship than has hitherto been possible. We show for Austria, Spain and possibly Belgium that the three predictive factors dominate while for other countries in the EU-15 country specific factors are more important. In relation to temporal effects we show both GDP and the recognition rate at the overall EU-15 level remain significant over time but refugee stock does not. We also show a downward level shift occurred in the elasticity of recognition rate in 2002 resulting in fewer refugees being recognised (i.e., granted refugee status) and, therefore, providing evidence that asylum policies have become more restrictive.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard Keogh, 2013. "Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 371-399.
  • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:44:y:2013:i:3:p:371-399
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esr.ie/article/download/77/67/77-290-1-PB.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ralph Rotte & Michael Vogler, 2000. "The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 485-508.
    2. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, March.
    3. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    4. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:2:p:247-270 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:irlaec:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:50-59 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; asylum seekers; European Union;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:44:y:2013:i:3:p:371-399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Martina Lawless). General contact details of provider: https://www.esr.ie .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.