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Quantifying the Importance of Nationality in Determining International Protection Outcomes in Ireland


  • Gerard Keogh

    (Trinity College Dublin, Ireland)


We examine 40,434 International Protection (IP) determinations for non-EEA nationals covering a 16-year period in Ireland. We quantify the weight of importance of nationality versus process factors (e.g. length of time awaiting a decision) and applicant (e.g. gender) related characteristics in determining the IP outcome and show that nationality accounts for over twothirds of the explained variation in outcomes. We also show that a grant of protection of depends on just seven statistically significant applicant characteristics or process factors suggesting the determining officer’s assessment of the credibility of an asylum claim is nuanced. Taken with the fact that the UNHCR provides oversight of the IP determination procedure we take the view that the procedure is reasonably fair. Nonetheless, our analysis also shows that a stiffer determination regime has been in place in Ireland from 2007 to 2013. Our findings have important policy implications for IP in Ireland and elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard Keogh, 2016. "Quantifying the Importance of Nationality in Determining International Protection Outcomes in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 247-270.
  • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:2:p:247-270

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. TimothyJ. Hatton, 2009. "The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 183-213, February.
    2. Timothy J. Hatton, 2004. "Seeking asylum in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(38), pages 5-62, April.
    3. Gerard Keogh, 2013. "Modelling Asylum Migration Pull-Force Factors in the EU-15," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 371-399.
    4. Christina Davenport & Will Moore & Steven Poe, 2003. "Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 27-55, January.
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    nationality; protection; asylum; Ireland;


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