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Has the Accession of Greece in the EU Influenced the Dynamics of the Country’s “Twin Deficits”? An Empirical Investigation

Author

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  • Katrakilidis Constantinos
  • Trachanas Emmanouil

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of possible causal linkages between the internal and external imbalances of the Greek economy, over the period 1960-2007, as well as the directions of the detected causal effects. Actually, it tests empirically the validity and rationale of the “twin deficits” hypothesis, taking into consideration the impact of the accession of Greece in the European Economic Community in 1981, which constitutes a great institutional change. By means of the ARDL cointegration methodology, error-correction modeling and Granger causality, we find evidence in favor of the “twin deficits hypothesis” for the Greek case over the pre-accession period (1960-1980), with causality running from the budget deficit to the trade deficit. However, over the post-accession period (1981-2007) the causal relationship is reversed, indicating changes in the linking mechanism of the two deficits and providing useful inferences for the national economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Katrakilidis Constantinos & Trachanas Emmanouil, 2011. "Has the Accession of Greece in the EU Influenced the Dynamics of the Country’s “Twin Deficits”? An Empirical Investigation," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 45-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xiv:y:2011:i:1:p:45-54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stavros D. Mavroudeas, 2015. "The Greek saga: competing explanations of the Greek crisis," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-1, School of Economics, Kingston University London.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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