IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/emx/esteco/v11y1996i2p167-180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Mexican intertemporal budget constraint: Persistent signals of an eventual collapse

Author

Listed:
  • José A. Núñez

    (Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México)

  • Carlos M. Urzúa

    (El Colegio de México and Tecnológico de Monterrey)

Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of the Mexican current account deficit prior to the December 1994 crisis. It tests whether or not the Mexican economy was satisfying its intertemporal budget constraint, and finds that signals of possible trouble without a change in policies were present long before the crisis. The tests used are based on the Wickens-Uctum criterion for the sustainability of current account deficits, extended to include the case of possible interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • José A. Núñez & Carlos M. Urzúa, 1996. "The Mexican intertemporal budget constraint: Persistent signals of an eventual collapse," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 11(2), pages 167-180.
  • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:11:y:1996:i:2:p:167-180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/archivo/EstudiosEconomicos1996/167-180.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    2. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-250, July.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    5. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
    6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
    7. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    intertemporal budget constraint; current account; sustainability of current account deficit; Mexico;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:11:y:1996:i:2:p:167-180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rocío Contreras). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cecolmx.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.