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The Mexican intertemporal budget constraint: Persistent signals of an eventual collapse

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  • Núñez, José A.
  • Urzúa, Carlos M.

Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of the Mexican current account deficit prior to the December 1994 crisis. It tests whether or not the Mexican economy was satisfying its intertemporal budget constraint, and finds that signals of possible trouble without a change in policies were present long before the crisis. The tests used are based on the Wickens-Uctum criterion for the sustainability of current account deficits, extended to include the case of possible interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Núñez, José A. & Urzúa, Carlos M., 1995. "The Mexican intertemporal budget constraint: Persistent signals of an eventual collapse," EGAP Working Papers 200303, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:ega:docume:200303
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    File URL: http://alejandria.ccm.itesm.mx/egap/documentos/EGAP-2003-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engel, Charles & Hakkio, Craig S, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 55-67, January.
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    6. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mexican crisis; sustainability; Mexican current account deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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