The unemployment rate, unemployment volatility, and crime
Purpose – The paper aims to study the effect of the unemployment rate and its volatility on crime in the USA. It proposes that not only the unemployment rate, but also its volatility affect the crime. Design/methodology/approach – First, the volatility of the unemployment rate is calculated using ARCH models. Next, using the results from the first stage the ARDL approach to cointegration is used to examine the link between the unemployment rate and its volatility on the crime. Findings – The cointegrated or long-run relationships are found only for burglary and motor-vehicle theft. The results indicate that the unemployment rate has a significant effect on burglary and motor-vehicle theft only in the short run and the unemployment volatility has a negative effect on motor-vehicle theft regardless of time span. However, it has a positive effect on burglary in the short run and no effect in the long run. Originality/value – The effect of unemployment rate on crime is documented in the literature. However, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that emphasizes the importance of unemployment rate volatility on the crime. JEL classification: C22, E24
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ijse.htm Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ember, Rudolf, 2001.
"Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime,"
Journal of Law and Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 259-83, April.
- Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 1999. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," CEPR Discussion Papers 2129, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Raphael, Steven & WINTER-EBMER, RUDOLF, 1998. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5hb4h56g, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Corman, Hope & Mocan, Naci, 2005.
"Carrots, Sticks, and Broken Windows,"
Journal of Law and Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 235-66, April.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2007. "Using Markov-Switching Models to Identify the Link between Unemployment and Criminality," Working Papers 0701E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Grogger, Jeff, 1998.
"Market Wages and Youth Crime,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-91, October.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:39:y:2012:i:6:p:440-448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.