The unemployment rate, unemployment volatility, and crime
Purpose – The paper aims to study the effect of the unemployment rate and its volatility on crime in the USA. It proposes that not only the unemployment rate, but also its volatility affect the crime. Design/methodology/approach – First, the volatility of the unemployment rate is calculated using ARCH models. Next, using the results from the first stage the ARDL approach to cointegration is used to examine the link between the unemployment rate and its volatility on the crime. Findings – The cointegrated or long-run relationships are found only for burglary and motor-vehicle theft. The results indicate that the unemployment rate has a significant effect on burglary and motor-vehicle theft only in the short run and the unemployment volatility has a negative effect on motor-vehicle theft regardless of time span. However, it has a positive effect on burglary in the short run and no effect in the long run. Originality/value – The effect of unemployment rate on crime is documented in the literature. However, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that emphasizes the importance of unemployment rate volatility on the crime. JEL classification: C22, E24
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/ijse.htm Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Corman, Hope & Mocan, Naci, 2005.
"Carrots, Sticks, and Broken Windows,"
Journal of Law and Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 235-66, April.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Raphael, Steven & WINTER-EBMER, RUDOLF, 1998.
"Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt5hb4h56g, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Grogger, Jeff, 1998.
"Market Wages and Youth Crime,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-91, October.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2007. "Using Markov-Switching Models to Identify the Link between Unemployment and Criminality," Working Papers 0701E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:39:y:2012:i:6:p:440-448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.