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Renegotiation drivers in Brazilian airport concessions

Author

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  • Mello, Fabiana Peixoto de
  • Silva, Francisco Gildemir Ferreira da
  • Falcão, Viviane

Abstract

This study investigates the factors influencing the renegotiation of airport concession contracts in Brazil, focusing on the period from 2013 to 2023. It encompasses 59 airports, representing approximately 90 % of passenger movement in the country, and examines concessions awarded across seven rounds. Using a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with a probit function and panel data, the analysis identifies significant predictors of renegotiation. The findings reveal that macroeconomic instability, particularly exchange rate volatility, is the primary driver of renegotiations, highlighting the financial vulnerability of airport concessions to external shocks. Regulatory constraints, including fee caps and mandated investments misaligned with demand, further exacerbated financial strain on operators. While competitive bidding and high premiums contributed to financial pressures, the main challenge lay in the underestimation of macroeconomic risks rather than the structure of concession agreements themselves. These results underscore the importance of integrating macroeconomic risk management into future concession models to enhance financial resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Mello, Fabiana Peixoto de & Silva, Francisco Gildemir Ferreira da & Falcão, Viviane, 2025. "Renegotiation drivers in Brazilian airport concessions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 116-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:169:y:2025:i:c:p:116-132
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.030
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