Optimization of the Sino-Russian trade transportation network under geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and international sanctions against Russia have destabilized European segments of Sino-Russian trade corridors, necessitating a shift toward alternative routes. In order to improve the reliability of Sino-Russian trade transportation, a bi-level network optimization model is constructed with considering the geopolitical risks and seasonal Arctic shipping route, where the upper-model determines the ports-of-call, the order of calls, the types and number of the used ships and the frequency for the liner shipping, while the lower-model assigns Sino-Russian containers travel paths. The model solutions show that for the Sino-Russian trade transportation operating the North Sea route with 2000 TEU ships in July-September, year-round of the Baltic and Black Sea routes with 12,000 TEU ships and the Russian Far East route with 2,000 TEU ships is the optimal scheme. The risk increment at maritime transportation within Europe will enhance the choosing probabilities of the China Railway Express, the North Sea route and the Russian Far East route. The findings underscore a strategic diversification of fleets − deploying high-capacity vessels on Baltic/Black Sea route alongside smaller ships on the Arctic route − achieves cost-flexibility equilibrium, while targeted infrastructure investments in Arctic route ice-breaking and Russian Far East port modernization mitigate sanction-induced disruptions. Concurrently, the hierarchical decoupling of strategic fleet planning from tactical routing offers a scalable framework to insulate global trade networks from geopolitical volatility.