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Modelling the effects of road pricing on traffic using ERP traffic data

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  • Xie, Litian
  • Olszewski, Piotr

Abstract

Singapore's Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system involves time-variable charges which are intended to spread the morning traffic peak. The charges are revised every three months and thus induce regular motorists to re-think their travel decisions. ERP traffic data, captured by the system, provides a valuable source of information for studying motorists' travel behaviour. This paper proposes a new modelling methodology for using these data to forecast short-term impacts of rate adjustment on peak period traffic volumes. Separate models are developed for different categories of vehicles which are segmented according to their demand elasticity with respect to road pricing. A method is proposed for estimating the maximum likelihood value of preferred arrival time (PAT) for each vehicle's arrivals at a particular ERP gantry under different charging conditions. Iterative procedures are used in both model calibration and application. The proposed approach was tested using traffic datasets recorded in 2003 at a gantry located on Singapore's Central Expressway (CTE). The model calibration and validation show satisfactory results.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Litian & Olszewski, Piotr, 2011. "Modelling the effects of road pricing on traffic using ERP traffic data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 512-522, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:6:p:512-522
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:265:d:65622 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:transa:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:35-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chu, Singfat, 2015. "Car restraint policies and mileage in Singapore," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 404-412.
    4. Agarwal, Sumit & Koo, Kang Mo, 2016. "Impact of electronic road pricing (ERP) changes on transport modal choice," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Rouhani, Omid M. & Knittel, Christopher R. & Niemeier, Debbie, 2014. "Road Supply in Central London: Addition of an Ignored Social Cost," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 53(1).
    6. Cools, Mario & Brijs, Kris & Tormans, Hans & Moons, Elke & Janssens, Davy & Wets, Geert, 2011. "The socio-cognitive links between road pricing acceptability and changes in travel-behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 779-788, October.
    7. M. Rouhani, Omid, 2014. "Road pricing: An overview," MPRA Paper 59662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Omid M. Rouhani, 2016. "Next Generations of Road Pricing: Social Welfare Enhancing," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, March.

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