IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v202y2025ics0965856425003428.html

The impact of train accessibility on housing affordability: evidence from COVID-19 and the work-from-home shift

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Song
  • Ou, Yuming
  • Mao, Tuo

Abstract

This study examines the impact of train accessibility on housing affordability in Sydney, Australia, before, during, and after COVID‑19. Using panel regression and propensity score matching (PSM) to mitigate bias from unobserved neighbourhood heterogeneity and sample selection, we compare housing affordability between train-stop and non-stop suburbs for both house and unit (apartment) markets. Our findings indicate that before COVID‑19, housing affordability was worse in train-stop suburbs relative to non-stop suburbs due to an accessibility premium, particularly for houses. However, the pandemic and the shift towards remote work significantly reduced this premium, resulting in improved purchase affordability in train-stop suburbs for homeowners and investors, particularly for units. Meanwhile, rental affordability for houses in train-stop suburbs improved during and after the pandemic, but not for units. Our findings may influence the effectiveness and design of the government’s Transport‑Oriented Development (TOD) initiatives aimed at increasing unit/apartment supply around major train stations under changing commuting patterns and post-pandemic housing demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Song & Ou, Yuming & Mao, Tuo, 2025. "The impact of train accessibility on housing affordability: evidence from COVID-19 and the work-from-home shift," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:202:y:2025:i:c:s0965856425003428
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104709
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856425003428
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2025.104709?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack & Ozimek, Adam, 2023. "The short- and long-run effects of remote work on U.S. housing markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 166-184.
    3. Liu, Sitian & Su, Yichen, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for density: Evidence from the U.S. housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    4. A. Smith, Jeffrey & E. Todd, Petra, 2005. "Does matching overcome LaLonde's critique of nonexperimental estimators?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 305-353.
    5. Robert Armstrong & Daniel Rodríguez, 2006. "An Evaluation of the Accessibility Benefits of Commuter Rail in Eastern Massachusetts using Spatial Hedonic Price Functions," Transportation, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 21-43, January.
    6. Hensher, David A. & Balbontin, Camila & Beck, Matthew J. & Wei, Edward, 2024. "Commuting mode choice and work from home in the later stages of COVID-19: Consolidating a future focussed prediction tool to inform transport and land use planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    7. Wang, Bingbing, 2022. "Housing market volatility under COVID-19: Diverging response of demand in luxury and low-end housing markets," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Efthymiou, D. & Antoniou, C., 2013. "How do transport infrastructure and policies affect house prices and rents? Evidence from Athens, Greece," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-22.
    10. Song Shi & M. Humayun Kabir, 2018. "Catch Animal Spirits in Auction: Evidence from New Zealand Property Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 59-84, March.
    11. Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion & Eric Pels & Piet Rietveld, 2007. "The Impact of Railway Stations on Residential and Commercial Property Value: A Meta-analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 161-180, August.
    12. Hensher, David A. & Wei, Edward & Beck, MatthewJ. & Balbontin, Camila, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on cost outlays for car and public transport commuting - The case of the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area after three months of restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 71-80.
    13. ., 2023. "Land use and transport designed to meet social needs," Chapters, in: How Great Cities Happen, chapter 4, pages 82-114, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Carsten Putzke & Chunyu Guo & Vincent Plisson & Martin Kroner & Thibault Chervy & Matteo Simoni & Pim Wevers & Maja D. Bachmann & John R. Cooper & Antony Carrington & Naoki Kikugawa & Jennifer Fowlie , 2023. "Layered metals as polarized transparent conductors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    15. Mulley, Corinne & Ma, Liang & Clifton, Geoffrey & Yen, Barbara & Burke, Matthew, 2016. "Residential property value impacts of proximity to transport infrastructure: An investigation of bus rapid transit and heavy rail networks in Brisbane, Australia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 41-52.
    16. Jan K. Brueckner & Matthew E. Kahn & Gary C. Lin, 2023. "A New Spatial Hedonic Equilibrium in the Emerging Work-from-Home Economy?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 285-319, April.
    17. repec:osf:osfxxx:qxmdk_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Zhengyi Zhou & Hong Chen & Lu Han & Anming Zhang, 2021. "The Effect of a Subway on House Prices: Evidence from Shanghai," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 199-234, March.
    19. Bohman, Helena, 2021. "Same, same but different? Neighbourhood effects of accessibility on housing prices," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 52-60.
    20. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2020. "Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days under restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 76-93.
    21. Currie, Graham & Jain, Taru & Aston, Laura, 2021. "Evidence of a post-COVID change in travel behaviour – Self-reported expectations of commuting in Melbourne," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 218-234.
    22. Jan K. Brueckner & Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2009. "Gentrification and Neighborhood Housing Cycles: Will America's Future Downtowns Be Rich?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 725-743, November.
    23. Patric H. Hendershott & Joel Slemrod, 1982. "Taxes and the User Cost of Capital for Owner‐Occupied Housing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(4), pages 375-393, December.
    24. Pacheco, Edgar, 2024. "Experiences and attitudes toward working remotely from home in a time of pandemic: A snapshot from a New Zealand-based online survey," OSF Preprints qxmdk, Center for Open Science.
    25. Richard T & Robert C & Lauren Cohen, 2023. "Trust, Transparency, and Complexity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(8), pages 3213-3256.
    26. Gan, Quan & Hill, Robert J., 2009. "Measuring housing affordability: Looking beyond the median," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 115-125, June.
    27. Khamis A. K. Al Maqbali & Varghese C. Joshua & Ambily P. Mathew & Achyutha Krishnamoorthy, 2023. "Queueing Inventory System in Transport Problem," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-36, January.
    28. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2020. "Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days of easing restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 95-119.
    29. Hensher, David A. & Beck, Matthew J. & Wei, Edward, 2021. "Working from home and its implications for strategic transport modelling based on the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 64-78.
    30. Tao Li, 2020. "The Value of Access to Rail Transit in a Congested City: Evidence from Housing Prices in Beijing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 556-598, June.
    31. Ina Garnefeld & Andreas Eggert & Markus Husemann-Kopetzky & Eva Böhm, 2019. "Exploring the link between payment schemes and customer fraud: a mental accounting perspective," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 595-616, July.
    32. Zhengyi Zhou & Hongchang Li & Anming Zhang, 2024. "Does Bike Sharing increase House Prices? Evidence from Micro-level Data and the Impact of COVID-19," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 621-650, November.
    33. Brueckner, Jan K., 1987. "The structure of urban equilibria: A unified treatment of the muth-mills model," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 821-845, Elsevier.
    34. Itf, 2023. "Water transport employment: The role of governance," International Transport Forum Policy Papers 119, OECD Publishing.
    35. Wheaton, William C., 1974. "A comparative static analysis of urban spatial structure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 223-237, October.
    36. Minhua Yang & Junni Zhou, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the housing market: evidence from the Yangtze river delta region in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 409-412, March.
    37. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    38. Mulley, Corinne & Tsai, Chi-Hong (Patrick) & Ma, Liang, 2018. "Does residential property price benefit from light rail in Sydney?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 3-10.
    39. Laurence Carleton & Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich, 2022. "Rail stations and residential sorting: The case of Sydney metropolitan area," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(15), pages 3132-3149, November.
    40. Han, Huanfa & Liu, Cuiping & Li, Jing, 2024. "Managerial overconfidence and stock price crash risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    41. Mulley, Corinne & Tsai, Chi-Hong (Patrick), 2016. "When and how much does new transport infrastructure add to property values? Evidence from the bus rapid transit system in Sydney, Australia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 15-23.
    42. Gamber, William & Graham, James & Yadav, Anirudh, 2023. "Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    43. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kahn, Matthew E. & Rappaport, Jordan, 2008. "Why do the poor live in cities The role of public transportation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jian Liang & Kang Mo Koo & Chyi Lin Lee, 2021. "Transportation infrastructure improvement and real estate value: impact of level crossing removal project on housing prices," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 2969-3011, December.
    2. Qianyao Li & Junwu Wang & Judith Callanan & Binbin Lu & Zeng Guo, 2021. "The spatial varying relationship between services of the train network and residential property values in Melbourne, Australia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(2), pages 335-354, February.
    3. John Mondragon & Johannes F. Wieland, 2022. "Housing Demand and Remote Work," Working Paper Series 2022-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Rennert, Lindiwe, 2022. "A meta-analysis of the impact of rail stations on property values: Applying a transit planning lens," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 165-180.
    5. Basso, Leonardo J. & Navarro, Matias & Silva, Hugo E., 2021. "Public transport and urban structure," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Gilles Duranton & Jessie Handbury, 2023. "COVID and Cities, Thus Far," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(2), pages 6-52, October.
    7. Amoozad Mahdiraji, Hannan & Yaftiyan, Fatemeh & Abbasi-Kamardi, Aliasghar & Vrontis, Demetris & Gong, Yu, 2024. "Disentangling the resiliency of international transportation systems under uncertainty by a novel multi-layer spherical fuzzy decision-making framework: Evidence from an emerging economy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    8. Xi, Haoning & Li, Qin & Hensher, David A. & Nelson, John D. & Ho, Chinh, 2023. "Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on travel behavior in different socio-economic segments," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 98-112.
    9. Kogus, Ayelet & Brůhová Foltýnová, Hana & Gal-Tzur, Ayelet & Shiftan, Yuval & Vejchodská, Eliška & Shiftan, Yoram, 2022. "Will COVID-19 accelerate telecommuting? A cross-country evaluation for Israel and Czechia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 291-309.
    10. Balbontin, Camila & Mulley, Corinne, 2024. "A comparison of new transport projects in Sydney, Australia: Decomposition of the impact on residential property prices," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Jindong Pang & Shulin Shen, 2024. "Do subways improve labor market outcomes for low-skilled workers?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-34, March.
    12. Leonardo J. Basso & Matías Navarro & Hugo Silva, 2020. "Public Transport and Urban Structure," Documentos de Trabajo 549, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    13. Pasha, Obed & Wyczalkowski, Chris & Sohrabian, Dro & Lendel, Iryna, 2020. "Transit effects on poverty, employment, and rent in Cuyahoga County, Ohio," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 33-41.
    14. Malik, Khyati & Kim, Sowon & Cultice, Brian J., 2023. "The impact of remote work on green space values in regional housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Ruggeri, Aurora & Di Liddo, Felicia & Gabrielli, Laura & Tajani, Francesco & Morano, Pierluigi, 2025. "What is the “best” way to measure the relative location variables in the market value assessment? An econometric method applied to an Italian case study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    16. Elizabeth Delmelle & Isabelle Nilsson, 2020. "New rail transit stations and the out-migration of low-income residents," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(1), pages 134-151, January.
    17. David R. Agrawal & Xinyu Chen, 2026. "State and Local Tax Policy in a Time of Telework," CESifo Working Paper Series 12422, CESifo.
    18. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack & Ozimek, Adam, 2023. "The short- and long-run effects of remote work on U.S. housing markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 166-184.
    19. Amarin Siripanich & Taha Hossein Rashidi & Emily Moylan, 2019. "Interaction of Public Transport Accessibility and Residential Property Values Using Smart Card Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-24, May.
    20. Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto & Giordano Zevi & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Living on my own: the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on housing preferences," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 627, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:202:y:2025:i:c:s0965856425003428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.