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Causal forest estimation of heterogeneous effects of digital technologies on the national entrepreneurial process in emerging and developing countries

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  • Aissaoui, Najeh
  • Ayari, Zahida
  • Smiti, Abir

Abstract

Digital technologies are creating unprecedented entrepreneurial opportunities to overcome the main challenges facing emerging and developing economies. This paper analyzes data from 35 emerging and developing countries spanning 2001 to 2023 to examine the multifaceted effects of digital technologies on key aspects of entrepreneurship, including motivation, entrepreneurial intention, business creation, innovation, and viability. Using the causal forest method, our empirical findings show that while digital technologies significantly boost motivation, entrepreneurial intention, the conversion of this intention into actual business creation, innovation, and viability strongly depends on the institutional context-particularly government support, access to finance, and social norms. Our study also reveals heterogeneity based on income levels, with stronger effects observed in less mature markets. These results emphasize the need to complement digital investments with tailored policies to fully unlock entrepreneurial potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Aissaoui, Najeh & Ayari, Zahida & Smiti, Abir, 2026. "Causal forest estimation of heterogeneous effects of digital technologies on the national entrepreneurial process in emerging and developing countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:teinso:v:85:y:2026:i:c:s0160791x25003987
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2025.103208
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