Unraveling risk dynamics in the urban food-energy-water system for sustainable management: A coupled model considering trivariate complexity

Food, energy and water (FEW) shortage risks are increasingly combining in cities with the high levels of human activity. Taking Beijing as a case, a coupled model that considers the trivariate interdependence of urban FEW was developed based on system dynamics and the Copula function to unravel multi-dimensional risk dynamics under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that FEW demands will follow an inverted U-shaped pattern until reaching 1.4 million tons (Mt), 75 million tons of standard coal (Mtce) and 3.8 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in 2100 under SSP1, with the composite shortage risk peaking at 0.7 then declining to 0.4. Whereas under SSP5, the risk will sustain >0.8 post-2050 with FEW demands rising to 2.5 Mt., 130 Mtce and 6.6 Bm3. Energy shortages will consistently maintain a high-risk state. Advanced technology and efficient equipment should be introduced to secure sustainable energy supplies and reserves. Water risk is more constrained by widespread scarcity and tradeoffs, deserving special attention as a limiting factor in determining a city's carrying capacity. Sustainable development plans including urban function relocation and resource conservation, and synergistic multisectoral risk management as adjusting industrial structure and upgrading resource facilities should be considered to enhance urban FEW security.