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Population mobility, innovation, and urban low-carbon development: Evidence from heterogeneous skill mobility in China

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  • Wei, Huaying
  • Chen, Min
  • Xiao, Zhouyan
  • Sun, Honghao

Abstract

Understanding the relationship between urbanization, migration, and carbon emissions is critical, especially given the limited research on how varying skill levels in migrating populations affect carbon emissions. This paper examines the impact of population migration on carbon emissions, focusing on the diverse skill sets of the migrating population and considering the roles of urban innovation capacity and government innovation preferences. The findings reveal that high-skilled migration leads to increased carbon emissions with positive spatial spillover effects. Urban innovation capacity contributes to higher emissions from high-skilled migration but reduces emissions from general-skilled migration, thus confirming the rebound effect associated with high-skilled migration. Importantly, government innovation preferences can mitigate the emissions impact of high-skilled migration and enhance the carbon reduction effects of general-skilled migration. These insights highlight the significance of the government's role and provide valuable guidance for policymakers in urban and developing contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei, Huaying & Chen, Min & Xiao, Zhouyan & Sun, Honghao, 2025. "Population mobility, innovation, and urban low-carbon development: Evidence from heterogeneous skill mobility in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:213:y:2025:i:c:s004016252500040x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124009
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