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The artificial intelligence shock and socio-political polarization

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  • Jacobs, Julian

Abstract

Are artificial intelligence's complimenting and displacing labor market effects corresponding with similar polarization in socio-political beliefs? This study answers this question by analyzing survey data of 26,311 Americans, collected from the American National Election Survey. Data is deployed alongside 22-category Manyika et al. (2017) ‘automation potential’ estimates (proxying for ‘displacement due to AI’) and Michael Webb (2019) ‘AI-exposure’ estimates (proxying for labor complimented by AI). The study summarizes the demographic characteristics and socio-political views of the highly AI-exposed and automation-susceptible groups. It deploys a year and region fixed effects OLS model, with standard error clustered at the occupation level. This study then finds that automation-susceptible ‘losers’ of AI are more likely to be culturally conservative and economically left-leaning. Those complimented by AI are more likely to hold socially liberal and fiscally conservative views. The results suggest AI's labor market polarization may accompany radicalization and socio-political divergence, with implications for vote capture and representation of working-class interests in government.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacobs, Julian, 2024. "The artificial intelligence shock and socio-political polarization," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:199:y:2024:i:c:s0040162523006911
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Digitalization; Economic shocks; Inequality; Polarization; Political psychology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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