IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v107y2016icp50-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ambition and ambiguity: Expectations and imaginaries developing offshore wind in China

Author

Listed:
  • Korsnes, Marius

Abstract

This paper investigates how future-orientation generates action in China's offshore wind industry. We might expect that, with an authoritarian government, China would be able to push through policies with ease. Using the sociology of expectations and sociotechnical imaginaries, this paper shows how the future is an important resource for not only coordinating government and industry actors but also calibrating and negotiating expectations of what can be achieved. On the one hand, sociotechnical imaginaries – as exemplified by government development targets – appear to spur action; on the other hand, local expectations modify the intended development targets. The paper describes a strategic waiting game in which the government is obscure about intentions and in which the industry, wanting a piece of a promising cake, is eager to get a head start. This paper finds that ambitiousness about the future, but ambiguity in implementation, is a strategy successfully employed by the government to ensure change. The paper shows how state intervention is productively managed so that it neither stifles nor exclusively drives offshore wind industry development in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Korsnes, Marius, 2016. "Ambition and ambiguity: Expectations and imaginaries developing offshore wind in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 50-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:107:y:2016:i:c:p:50-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.03.030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516300221
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.03.030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Konrad, Kornelia & Markard, Jochen & Ruef, Annette & Truffer, Bernhard, 2012. "Strategic responses to fuel cell hype and disappointment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 1084-1098.
    2. Gosens, Jorrit & Lu, Yonglong, 2014. "Prospects for global market expansion of China’s wind turbine manufacturing industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 301-318.
    3. Shulin Gu & Bengt-Åke Lundvall & Ju Liu & Franco Malerba & Sylvia Schwaag Serger, 2009. "China's System and Vision of Innovation: An Analysis in Relation to the Strategic Adjustment and the Medium- to Long-Term S&T Development Plan (2006-20)," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4-5), pages 369-388.
    4. Bakker, Sjoerd & van Lente, Harro & Meeus, Marius T.H., 2012. "Credible expectations — The US Department of Energy's Hydrogen Program as enactor and selector of hydrogen technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 1059-1071.
    5. Marius Korsnes, 2014. "Fragmentation, Centralisation and Policy Learning: An Example from China’s Wind Industry," Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China aktuell, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 43(3), pages 175-205.
    6. Erik Baark, 2007. "Knowledge and Innovation in China: Historical Legacies and Emerging Institutions," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 337-356, July.
    7. Levidow, Les & Borda-Rodriguez, Alexander & Papaioannou, Theo, 2014. "UK bioenergy innovation priorities: Making expectations credible in state-industry arenas," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 191-204.
    8. Barry Naughton, 2007. "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262640643, December.
    9. Gosens, Jorrit & Lu, Yonglong, 2013. "From lagging to leading? Technological innovation systems in emerging economies and the case of Chinese wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 234-250.
    10. Li, Jun & Wang, Xin, 2012. "Energy and climate policy in China's twelfth five-year plan: A paradigm shift," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 519-528.
    11. Alkemade, Floortje & Suurs, Roald A.A., 2012. "Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 448-456.
    12. Marius Korsnes, 2016. "A sustainable Chinese catch-up?: Product quality and interactive learning in the offshore wind industry," International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 172-196.
    13. Nee, Victor & Opper, Sonja, 2012. "Capitalism from Below: Markets and Institutional Change in China," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674050204, Spring.
    14. Budde, Björn & Alkemade, Floortje & Weber, K. Matthias, 2012. "Expectations as a key to understanding actor strategies in the field of fuel cell and hydrogen vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 1072-1083.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Williams, Laurence & Bergman, Noam, 2023. "Koomey's law forevermore? A document analysis of the production and circulation of the promise of ‘green 5G’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Kriechbaum, Michael & López Prol, Javier & Posch, Alfred, 2018. "Looking back at the future: Dynamics of collective expectations about photovoltaic technology in Germany & Spain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 76-87.
    3. Stocker, Volker & Whalley, Jason, 2019. "Who replies to consultations, and what do they say? The case of broadband universal service in the UK," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1-1.
    4. Thomas Poulsen & Charlotte Bay Hasager, 2017. "The (R)evolution of China: Offshore Wind Diffusion," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-32, December.
    5. Kuchler, Magdalena & Höök, Mikael, 2020. "Fractured visions: Anticipating (un)conventional natural gas in Poland," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Hopkins, Debbie & Schwanen, Tim, 2023. "Sociotechnical expectations of vehicle automation in the UK trucking sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kriechbaum, Michael & López Prol, Javier & Posch, Alfred, 2018. "Looking back at the future: Dynamics of collective expectations about photovoltaic technology in Germany & Spain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 76-87.
    2. Budde, Björn & Konrad, Kornelia, 2019. "Tentative governing of fuel cell innovation in a dynamic network of expectations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1098-1112.
    3. Kriechbaum, Michael & Posch, Alfred & Hauswiesner, Angelika, 2021. "Hype cycles during socio-technical transitions: The dynamics of collective expectations about renewable energy in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    4. Hoppmann, Joern & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Narayanamurti, Venkatesh, 2020. "Why matter matters: How technology characteristics shape the strategic framing of technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    5. Williams, Laurence & Bergman, Noam, 2023. "Koomey's law forevermore? A document analysis of the production and circulation of the promise of ‘green 5G’," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Kirkels, Arjan, 2016. "Biomass boom or bubble? A longitudinal study on expectation dynamics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 83-96.
    7. Shi, Yuwei & Herniman, John, 2023. "The role of expectation in innovation evolution: Exploring hype cycles," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Binz, Christian & Gosens, Jorrit & Hansen, Teis & Hansen, Ulrich Elmer, 2017. "Toward Technology-Sensitive Catching-Up Policies: Insights from Renewable Energy in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 418-437.
    9. Karoline Augenstein & Alexandra Palzkill, 2015. "The Dilemma of Incumbents in Sustainability Transitions: A Narrative Approach," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Juliana Subtil Lacerda & Jeroen C. J. M. Van den Bergh, 2014. "International Diffusion of Renewable Energy Innovations: Lessons from the Lead Markets for Wind Power in China, Germany and USA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-28, December.
    11. Faria, Lourenço Galvão Diniz & Andersen, Maj Munch, 2017. "Sectoral patterns versus firm-level heterogeneity - The dynamics of eco-innovation strategies in the automotive sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 266-281.
    12. Ozgun, Burcu & Broekel, Tom, 2021. "The geography of innovation and technology news - An empirical study of the German news media," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Marius Korsnes, 2014. "Fragmentation, Centralisation and Policy Learning: An Example from China’s Wind Industry," Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China aktuell, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 43(3), pages 175-205.
    14. Raghu Garud & Henri A. Schildt & Theresa K. Lant, 2014. "Entrepreneurial Storytelling, Future Expectations, and the Paradox of Legitimacy," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 1479-1492, October.
    15. Grafström, Jonas, 2019. "Public policy failures related to China´s Wind Power Development," Ratio Working Papers 320, The Ratio Institute.
    16. Zhou, Wubiao, 2017. "Institutional environment, public-private hybrid forms, and entrepreneurial reinvestment in a transition economy," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 197-214.
    17. Lu, Yi & Luan, Mengna & Sng, Tuan-Hwee, 2020. "Did the communists contribute to China’s rural growth?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Grafström, Jonas, 2020. "An Austrian economic perspective on failed Chinese wind power development," Ratio Working Papers 336, The Ratio Institute.
    19. Apreda, Riccardo & Bonaccorsi, Andrea & dell'Orletta, Felice & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2019. "Expert forecast and realized outcomes in technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 277-288.
    20. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:107:y:2016:i:c:p:50-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.