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The ripple effects of CBDC-related news on Bitcoin returns: Insights from the DCC-GARCH model

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  • Akin, Isik
  • Khan, Muhammad Zubair
  • Hameed, Affan
  • Chebbi, Kaouthar
  • Satiroglu, Hakan

Abstract

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have emerged as a potential substitute for current payment methods, and, as such, major announcements, events and policy discussions regarding CBDCs have the potential to influence cryptocurrency returns. In light of this, the present study undertakes an in-depth analysis of the CoinMarketCap data between August 1, 2017 and April 1, 2022 by implementing the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model. The study reveals a noteworthy influence of news and events related to CBDCs on Bitcoin returns. Precisely, CBDC uncertainty index and CBDC attention index have resulted in significant fluctuations in Bitcoin returns, indicating that positive news can result in significant Bitcoin returns. The findings suggest that future expectations of investors regarding cryptocurrencies are shaped by CBDC-related news and events.

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  • Akin, Isik & Khan, Muhammad Zubair & Hameed, Affan & Chebbi, Kaouthar & Satiroglu, Hakan, 2023. "The ripple effects of CBDC-related news on Bitcoin returns: Insights from the DCC-GARCH model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001861
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102060
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    2. Heitmann, Dennis & Koch, Jascha-Alexander & Islam, Mohammad Saiful & Eva, Sharmin Akter, 2025. "The impact of central bank digital currencies on the financial stability of banks: Dynamic panel estimation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Qureshi, Anum, 2025. "Central bank digital currency and systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Kitvanitphasu, Atiwat & Kyaw, Khine & Likitapiwat, Tanakorn & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2026. "Bitcoin wild moves: Evidence from order flow toxicity and price jumps," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Wan, Jieru & Han, Liyan & Wu, You, 2025. "Time-frequency volatility spillovers between CBDC uncertainty and cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Qadeer, Abdul & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Sami, Mina & De Moor, Lieven, 2025. "Portfolio investment analysis and asymmetric shock transmission among green investment, fixed income, and commodity markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    7. Santosh KUMAR & Bharat Kumar MEHER & Ramona BIRAU & Abhishek ANAND & Mircea Laurentiu SIMION, 2023. "Investigating Volatility Dynamics of the Portugal Stock Market using FIGARCH Models," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 3, pages 39-45.
    8. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Alam, Md Rafayet & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Does news related to digital economy and central bank digital currency affect digital economy ETFs? Evidence from TVP-VAR connectedness and wavelet local multiple correlation analyses," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    9. Mosab I. Tabash & Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy & Azzam Hannoon, 2024. "Modeling the Nexus between European Carbon Emission Trading and Financial Market Returns: Practical Implications for Carbon Risk Reduction and Hedging," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-29, April.

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