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Will global warming reduce future energy consumption and CO2 emissions by U.S. households?

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  • Hill, Alexander

Abstract

Rising CO2 emissions are projected to increase future temperatures, which reduces household heating energy demand and increases cooling demand. This leaves the overall effect, on both energy consumption and future CO2 emissions, unknown. Using a household-level discrete choice estimation strategy, this paper finds the more extreme warming scenario reduces annual U.S. CO2 emissions from residential space heating and cooling by 61 million tons annually by the 2070 s, compared to a scenario without rising temperatures. Rising emissions from space cooling are more than offset by the reduction in emissions from space heating, leading to $19.4 billion in annual reduced damages. JEL Q54 Q41 L90

Suggested Citation

  • Hill, Alexander, 2026. "Will global warming reduce future energy consumption and CO2 emissions by U.S. households?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:85:y:2026:i:c:s0928765526000023
    DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2026.101553
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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General

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