IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejpol/v10y2018i2p90-116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Fall of Coal: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices and Renewables on Generation and Emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Harrison Fell
  • Daniel T. Kaffine

Abstract

Since 2007, US coal-fired electricity generation has declined by a stunning 25 percent. Detailed daily unit-level data is used to examine the joint impact of natural gas prices and wind generation on coal-fired generation and emissions, with a focus on the interaction between gas prices and wind. This interaction is found to be significant. Marginal responses of coal-fired generation to natural gas prices (wind) in 2013 were larger, sometimes much larger, than the counterfactual with 2008 wind generation (gas prices). Additionally, these factors jointly account for the vast majority of the observed decline in generation and emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison Fell & Daniel T. Kaffine, 2018. "The Fall of Coal: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices and Renewables on Generation and Emissions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 90-116, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:90-116
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.20150321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pol.20150321
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=6841
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=F601nxeb59iqblTRI-OSPW90sQQmWcOD
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=WMepPuvvTMS9yGkgrWEEOasTCMgEcs7Y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baranes, Edmond & Jacqmin, Julien & Poudou, Jean-Christophe, 2017. "Non-renewable and intermittent renewable energy sources: Friends and foes?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 58-67.
    2. Antonio F. Galvao & Carlos Lamarche & Luiz Renato Lima, 2013. "Estimation of Censored Quantile Regression for Panel Data With Fixed Effects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(503), pages 1075-1089, September.
    3. Joseph Cullen, 2013. "Measuring the Environmental Benefits of Wind-Generated Electricity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 107-133, November.
    4. Joshua Linn & Erin Mastrangelo & Dallas Burtraw, 2014. "Regulating Greenhouse Gases from Coal Power Plants under the Clean Air Act," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 97-134.
    5. Kevin Novan, 2015. "Valuing the Wind: Renewable Energy Policies and Air Pollution Avoided," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 291-326, August.
    6. J. Scott Holladay & Jacob LaRiviere, 2015. "The Impact of Cheap Natural Gas on Marginal Emissions from Electricity Generation and Implications for Energy," Working Papers 2015-07, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    7. Paul L. Joskow, 2011. "Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 238-241, May.
    8. Jenner, Steffen & Lamadrid, Alberto J., 2013. "Shale gas vs. coal: Policy implications from environmental impact comparisons of shale gas, conventional gas, and coal on air, water, and land in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 442-453.
    9. Linn, Joshua & Anna Muehlenbachs, Lucija & Wang, Yshuang, 2014. "How Do Natural Gas Prices Affect Electricity Consumers and the Environment?," RFF Working Paper Series dp-14-19, Resources for the Future.
    10. Fernández-Val, Iván & Vella, Francis, 2011. "Bias corrections for two-step fixed effects panel data estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 144-162, August.
    11. Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June.
    12. Joseph A. Cullen & Erin T. Mansur, 2017. "Inferring Carbon Abatement Costs in Electricity Markets: A Revealed Preference Approach Using the Shale Revolution," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 106-133, August.
    13. Richard Schmalensee, 2012. "Evaluating Policies to Increase Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 6(1), pages 45-64.
    14. Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Andre Trindade, 2015. "Natural Gas Prices and Coal Displacement: Evidence from Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 21627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Fell, Harrison & Linn, Joshua, 2013. "Renewable electricity policies, heterogeneity, and cost effectiveness," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 688-707.
    16. Daniel T. Kaffine, Brannin J. McBee, and Jozef Lieskovsky, 2013. "Emissions Savings from Wind Power Generation in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    17. Paul L. Joskow, 2013. "Natural Gas: From Shortages to Abundance in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 338-343, May.
    18. Holladay, J. Scott & LaRiviere, Jacob, 2017. "The impact of cheap natural gas on marginal emissions from electricity generation and implications for energy policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 205-227.
    19. Nicholas Z. Muller & Robert Mendelsohn, 2009. "Efficient Pollution Regulation: Getting the Prices Right," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1714-1739, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harrison Fell & Daniel T. Kaffine, 2014. "A one-two punch: Joint effects of natural gas abundance and renewables on coal-fired power plants," Working Papers 2014-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    2. Nathaly M Rivera & Cristobal Ruiz Tagle, Elisheba Spiller, 2021. "The Health Benefits of Solar Power Generation: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_04, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2023. "Carbon pricing and emissions: Causal effects of Britain's carbon tax," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Brehm, Paul, 2019. "Natural gas prices, electric generation investment, and greenhouse gas emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. LaPlue, Lawrence D., 2022. "Environmental consequences of natural gas wellhead pricing deregulation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Doyle, Matthew & Fell, Harrison, 2018. "Fuel prices, restructuring, and natural gas plant operations," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 153-172.
    7. Mar Reguant, 2018. "The Efficiency and Sectoral Distributional Implications of Large-Scale Renewable Policies," NBER Working Papers 24398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rhodes, Joshua D. & King, Carey & Gulen, Gürcan & Olmstead, Sheila M. & Dyer, James S. & Hebner, Robert E. & Beach, Fred C. & Edgar, Thomas F. & Webber, Michael E., 2017. "A geographically resolved method to estimate levelized power plant costs with environmental externalities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 491-499.
    9. Matthew Doyle & Harrison Fell, 2016. "Fuel Prices, Restructuring, and Natural Gas Plant Operations," Working Papers 2016-03, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    10. Stefan Lamp & Mario Samano, 2023. "(Mis)allocation of Renewable Energy Sources," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(1), pages 195-229.
    11. Graff Zivin, Joshua S. & Kotchen, Matthew J. & Mansur, Erin T., 2014. "Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of marginal emissions: Implications for electric cars and other electricity-shifting policies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PA), pages 248-268.
    12. Harding, Matthew & Kettler, Kyle & Lamarche, Carlos & Ma, Lala, 2023. "The (alleged) environmental and social benefits of dynamic pricing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 574-593.
    13. Duque, Valentina & Gilraine, Michael, 2022. "Coal use, air pollution, and student performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. John J. García Rendón & Alex F. Pérez-Libreros, 2019. "El precio spot de la electricidad y la inclusión de energía renovable no convencional: evidencia para Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 17393, Universidad EAFIT.
    15. Joseph A. Cullen & Erin T. Mansur, 2017. "Inferring Carbon Abatement Costs in Electricity Markets: A Revealed Preference Approach Using the Shale Revolution," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 106-133, August.
    16. Abrell, Jan & Kosch, Mirjam & Rausch, Sebastian, 2022. "How effective is carbon pricing?—A machine learning approach to policy evaluation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Graf, Christoph & Marcantonini, Claudio, 2017. "Renewable energy and its impact on thermal generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 421-430.
    18. Linn, Joshua & Muehlenbachs, Lucija, 2018. "The heterogeneous impacts of low natural gas prices on consumers and the environment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-28.
    19. J. Scott Holladay & Jacob LaRiviere, 2015. "The Impact of Cheap Natural Gas on Marginal Emissions from Electricity Generation and Implications for Energy," Working Papers 2015-07, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    20. Catherine Hausman & Ryan Kellogg, 2015. "Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 71-139.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:90-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.