Costs and benefits of e-roads versus battery trucks: Uncertainty and coordination

The EU aims to achieve climate neutrality for trucks. This paper compares the user cost of diesel trucks, battery electric trucks, and trucks that rely on overhead lines in a decision context where the developments of battery costs and overhead line investment and maintenance costs are uncertain. The user costs contain the truck capital cost and the energy costs, the possible vehicle-to-grid benefits, driver costs, and other distance costs. User costs are compared for different distance profiles and optimized battery sizes. The possible user cost developments serve as input to an analysis of investment decisions in electric motorways (e-roads). The economics of e-roads is analyzed for two representations of the EU TEN-T network. In the first analysis, average EU truck flow (veh/h) and truck trip characteristics are used. In the second representation, we consider domestic and international truck transport between two neighbouring countries with strongly diverging average traffic flows and shares of international truck trips on their TEN-T network. This allows for the analysis of the non-cooperative and cooperative solutions of the two countries. The installation of e-roads appears to be a robust investment decision for the motorways of large countries that have dense truck traffic but not for less dense countries. Cooperation between countries may increase total benefits due to economies of scale.