IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v74y2015icp761-773.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wind resource estimates with an analog ensemble approach

Author

Listed:
  • Vanvyve, Emilie
  • Delle Monache, Luca
  • Monaghan, Andrew J.
  • Pinto, James O.

Abstract

The wind resource and energy assessment is key to a wind farm development project. It allows for establishing the feasibility and economic viability of the project over the typical 10- to 30-year lifetime of a wind farm. Recent studies show that the accuracy of assessments has substantial room for improvement. Estimating and reducing uncertainty is important to secure financing and ensure the confidence of investors. A new method is proposed and demonstrated for the long-term estimation of the wind speeds at a target site, a key step in assessments. The method is based on ensembles made of analogs between a short-term observational record from the target site and a long-term historical record from a nearby site or an atmospheric model. It provides a high-quality long-term wind resource estimate, characterized by an accurate wind speed time series and frequency distribution. It also provides a reliable estimate of the uncertainty based on the actual physical processes determining the current atmospheric flow rather than the climatological wind distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanvyve, Emilie & Delle Monache, Luca & Monaghan, Andrew J. & Pinto, James O., 2015. "Wind resource estimates with an analog ensemble approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 761-773.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:74:y:2015:i:c:p:761-773
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.08.060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148114005308
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2014.08.060?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tilmann Gneiting & Fadoua Balabdaoui & Adrian E. Raftery, 2007. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 243-268, April.
    2. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nedaei, Mojtaba & Assareh, Ehsanolah & Walsh, Philip R., 2018. "A comprehensive evaluation of the wind resource characteristics to investigate the short term penetration of regional wind power based on different probability statistical methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(PA), pages 362-374.
    2. Federico E. del Pozo & Chang Ki Kim & Hyun-Goo Kim, 2023. "Refining the Selection of Historical Period in Analog Ensemble Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Liang, Yushi & Wu, Chunbing & Ji, Xiaodong & Zhang, Mulan & Li, Yiran & He, Jianjun & Qin, Zhiheng, 2022. "Estimation of the influences of spatiotemporal variations in air density on wind energy assessment in China based on deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    4. Zhang, Jie & Draxl, Caroline & Hopson, Thomas & Monache, Luca Delle & Vanvyve, Emilie & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2015. "Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 528-541.
    5. Yang, Xiaolei & Milliren, Christopher & Kistner, Matt & Hogg, Christopher & Marr, Jeff & Shen, Lian & Sotiropoulos, Fotis, 2021. "High-fidelity simulations and field measurements for characterizing wind fields in a utility-scale wind farm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    6. Salcedo-Sanz, S. & García-Herrera, R. & Camacho-Gómez, C. & Aybar-Ruíz, A. & Alexandre, E., 2018. "Wind power field reconstruction from a reduced set of representative measuring points," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1111-1121.
    7. Hao, Ying & Dong, Lei & Liao, Xiaozhong & Liang, Jun & Wang, Lijie & Wang, Bo, 2019. "A novel clustering algorithm based on mathematical morphology for wind power generation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 572-585.
    8. Shahriari, M. & Cervone, G. & Clemente-Harding, L. & Delle Monache, L., 2020. "Using the analog ensemble method as a proxy measurement for wind power predictability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 789-801.
    9. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    10. Jiang, Haiyan & Wang, Jianzhou & Wu, Jie & Geng, Wei, 2017. "Comparison of numerical methods and metaheuristic optimization algorithms for estimating parameters for wind energy potential assessment in low wind regions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1199-1217.
    11. Javier Sanz Rodrigo & Roberto Aurelio Chávez Arroyo & Patrick Moriarty & Matthew Churchfield & Branko Kosović & Pierre‐Elouan Réthoré & Kurt Schaldemose Hansen & Andrea Hahmann & Jeffrey D. Mirocha & , 2017. "Mesoscale to microscale wind farm flow modeling and evaluation," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), March.
    12. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. José Antonio Rodríguez Martín & Juan Dios Jiménez Aguilera & José Antonio Salinas Fernández & José María Martín Martín, 2016. "Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5: Progress in the Least Developed Countries of Asia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(2), pages 489-504, November.
    2. Craig Garthwaite & Tal Gross & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2014. "Public Health Insurance, Labor Supply, and Employment Lock," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 653-696.
    3. Tarek Roshdy Gebba & Mohamed Gamal Aboelmaged, 2016. "Corporate Governance of UAE Financial Institutions: A Comparative Study between Conventional and Islamic Banks," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(5), pages 1-7.
    4. Nelson, Ewan & Warren, Peter, 2020. "UK transport decoupling: On track for clean growth in transport?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 39-51.
    5. Antonio Bassanetti & Matteo Bugamelli & Sandro Momigliano & Roberto Sabbatini & Francesco Zollino, 2014. "The policy response to macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances in Italy in the last fifteen years," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(268), pages 55-103.
    6. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Responsible use of crop protection products and Nigeria's growth enhancement support scheme," Development in Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 448-463, May.
    7. Peter J. Rimmer, 2014. "Asian-Pacific Rim Logistics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12949.
    8. Clarete, Ramon L. & Villamil, Isabela Rosario G., 2015. "Readiness of the Philippine Agriculture and Fisheries Sectors for the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community: A Rapid Appraisal," Research Paper Series DP 2015-43, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    9. Li, Xi & Yu, Biying, 2019. "Peaking CO2 emissions for China's urban passenger transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Emanuel, Elizabeth & Alleyne, Dillon & Phillips, Willard, 2013. "An assessment of fiscal and regulatory barriers to the deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38502, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Gang Chen, 2015. "From mercantile strategy to domestic demand stimulation: changes in China's solar PV subsidies," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 96-112, January.
    12. Cristian Pana, 2013. "The National Central Bank’S Management Of Reserve Requirements," Working papers 16, Ecological University of Bucharest, Department of Economics.
    13. Junlakarn, Siripha & Kittner, Noah & Tongsopit, Sopitsuda & Saelim, Supawan, 2021. "A cross-country comparison of compensation mechanisms for distributed photovoltaics in the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. McMahon, Rob, 2020. "Co-developing digital inclusion policy and programming with indigenous partners: Interventions from Canada," Internet Policy Review: Journal on Internet Regulation, Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG), Berlin, vol. 9(2), pages 1-26.
    15. Wang, Jianjun & Ortiz, Theresa & Navarro, Diana & Maier, Roland & Wang, Summer & Wang, Lisa & Wang, Libing, 2016. "An empirical study of early childhood support through partnership building," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 74-80.
    16. Berta Morata & Chiara Cavalieri & Agatino Rizzo & Andrea Luciani, 2020. "Territories of Extraction: Mapping Palimpsests of Appropriation," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(2), pages 132-151.
    17. Adoracion M. NAVARRO & Gilberto M. LLANTO, . "Philippines Country Report," Chapters, in: Fauziah ZEN & Michael REGAN (ed.), Financing ASEAN Connectivity, chapter 7, pages 269-330, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    18. John V. Duca, 2013. "Regionally, Housing Rebound Depends on Jobs, Local Supply Tightness," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Fong Kean Yan & Yap Lya Keng & Kwek Kien Teng, 2016. "Empirical Analysis of House Price Bubble: A Case Study on Malaysia," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 127-127, November.
    20. Divya Ravindranath, 2017. "Visa regulations and labour market restrictions: implications for Indian immigrant women in the United States," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 60(2), pages 217-232, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:74:y:2015:i:c:p:761-773. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.