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Using medium-range weather forcasts to improve the value of wind energy production

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  • Roulston, M.S.
  • Kaplan, D.T.
  • Hardenberg, J.
  • Smith, L.A.

Abstract

The value of different strategies for consolidating the information in European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forecasts to wind energy generators is investigated. Simulating the performance of generators using the different strategies in the context of a simplified electricity market revealed that ECMWF forecasts in production decisions improved the performance of generators at lead times of up to 6 days. Basing half-hourly production decisions on a production forecast generated by condtioning the climate on the ECMWF operational ensemble forecast yields the best results of all the strategies tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Roulston, M.S. & Kaplan, D.T. & Hardenberg, J. & Smith, L.A., 2003. "Using medium-range weather forcasts to improve the value of wind energy production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 585-602.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:28:y:2003:i:4:p:585-602
    DOI: 10.1016/S0960-1481(02)00054-X
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    1. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "A hybrid model for wind speed prediction using empirical mode decomposition and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 545-556.
    2. Aurore Dupré & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Christian Briard & Peter Tankov, 2020. "The Economic Value of Wind Energy Nowcasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Men, Zhongxian & Yee, Eugene & Lien, Fue-Sang & Wen, Deyong & Chen, Yongsheng, 2016. "Short-term wind speed and power forecasting using an ensemble of mixture density neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 203-211.
    4. Stefano Alessandrini & Tyler McCandless, 2020. "The Schaake Shuffle Technique to Combine Solar and Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Hu, Weicheng & Yang, Qingshan & Chen, Hua-Peng & Guo, Kunpeng & Zhou, Tong & Liu, Min & Zhang, Jian & Yuan, Ziting, 2022. "A novel approach for wind farm micro-siting in complex terrain based on an improved genetic algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    6. Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. & Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo & Monteiro, Cláudio & Sousa, João & Bessa, Ricardo, 2009. "Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1848-1854.
    7. Damilola A. Asaleye & Michael Breen & Michael D. Murphy, 2017. "A Decision Support Tool for Building Integrated Renewable Energy Microgrids Connected to a Smart Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    8. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2010. "Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA–ANN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2732-2738.
    9. Murphy, M.D. & O’Mahony, M.J. & Upton, J., 2015. "Comparison of control systems for the optimisation of ice storage in a dynamic real time electricity pricing environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 392-403.
    10. Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed: ensemble model output statistics by using heteroscedastic censored regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 371-388, April.
    11. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2007. "Wind speed forecasting in the South Coast of Oaxaca, México," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2116-2128.
    12. Taylor, James W. & Jeon, Jooyoung, 2015. "Forecasting wind power quantiles using conditional kernel estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 370-379.
    13. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Cervone, G., 2015. "An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 95-110.
    14. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    15. Yuan, Shengxi & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Modi, Vijay, 2017. "Benefits of forecasting and energy storage in isolated grids with large wind penetration – The case of Sao Vicente," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 167-174.

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