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Development potential and carbon emission reduction effect of photovoltaics in countries along the belt and road

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Yuanmeng
  • Chou, Jieming
  • Zhao, Weixing
  • Jin, Haofeng
  • Guo, Hao

Abstract

This study systematically assesses the photovoltaic (PV) power generation potential and its carbon emission reduction effects in countries along the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI). Utilizing high-resolution meteorological reanalysis data from 1940 to 2020 and PV generation models, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of PV resources and their correlation with climate change. The findings indicate that high-value areas of PV potential in BRI countries are concentrated in the Tibetan Plateau, Central Asia, South Asia, and West Asia. Over the past decades, PV potential has exhibited significant regional heterogeneity, with an overall declining trend across the study area, though this distribution is uneven both temporally and spatially.Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and technical correction factors, we identified suitable areas for PV power station construction and calculated the technical potential of PV generation. The results show that even after considering constraints such as terrain, land use, and ecological protection, the technical potential of PV in BRI countries remains as high as 190.7 PWh, far exceeding global electricity demand. Additionally, this study assessed the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for PV projects under various payback period scenarios. Analysis reveals that as the project lifecycle extends, the LCOE has a reduction of 29.4 %, while economically viable areas continue to expand.Finally, through fossil fuel substitution scenario simulations, we estimated the carbon emission reduction potential of PV development. The results suggest that by fully leveraging PV's fossil energy substitution effect, BRI countries could achieve carbon emission reductions of approximately 15 billion tons, with particularly significant benefits in regions such as China, the Middle East, and South Asia, which have large energy consumption scales and high dependence on fossil fuels. This research provides scientific basis for BRI countries to formulate differentiated sustainable energy development strategies and low-carbon transition pathways.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yuanmeng & Chou, Jieming & Zhao, Weixing & Jin, Haofeng & Guo, Hao, 2026. "Development potential and carbon emission reduction effect of photovoltaics in countries along the belt and road," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:256:y:2026:i:pa:s0960148125015010
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123837
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