IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v280y2020ics0306261920313581.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of climate change on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Xiaohu
  • Huang, Guohe
  • Lu, Chen
  • Zhou, Xiong
  • Li, Yongping

Abstract

The worldwide pressure of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation calls for explosive growth in the research and development of renewable energies. At the same time, from a long-term point of view, the renewable energy sector may also be affected by climate change. In this study, the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) energy potential are evaluated based on the downscaled climate projections in China. The climate projections for the 21st century of China under two Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs) will be generated through the ERA-Interim reanalysis and three global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Then the projections of PV-power-related climate variables and PV-energy potential can be obtained for three periods, i.e., the 2030 s (2020–2039), 2050 s (2040–2069), and 2080 s (2070–2099). The results indicate that PV-energy potential is likely to have a slight decrease of up to 6% in most of the study regions under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Variations in PV-energy potential are further investigated through examining the contributions from changes in temperature, total radiation, and sunshine duration. The results indicate that the dominant contributions are from the changes in total radiation and sunshine duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Xiaohu & Huang, Guohe & Lu, Chen & Zhou, Xiong & Li, Yongping, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:280:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920313581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115888
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261920313581
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115888?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jinyue Yan & Ying Yang & Pietro Elia Campana & Jijiang He, 2019. "City-level analysis of subsidy-free solar photovoltaic electricity price, profits and grid parity in China," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(8), pages 709-717, August.
    2. Xingang, Zhao & Jieyu, Wang & Xiaomeng, Liu & Pingkuo, Liu, 2012. "China’s wind, biomass and solar power generation: What the situation tells us?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 6173-6182.
    3. Sawadogo, Windmanagda & Abiodun, Babatunde J. & Okogbue, Emmanuel C., 2020. "Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 263-277.
    4. Pérez, Juan C. & González, Albano & Díaz, Juan P. & Expósito, Francisco J. & Felipe, Jonatan, 2019. "Climate change impact on future photovoltaic resource potential in an orographically complex archipelago, the Canary Islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 749-759.
    5. Lappalainen, Kari & Wang, Guang C. & Kleissl, Jan, 2020. "Estimation of the largest expected photovoltaic power ramp rates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    6. de Jong, Pieter & Barreto, Tarssio B. & Tanajura, Clemente A.S. & Kouloukoui, Daniel & Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P. & Kiperstok, Asher & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2019. "Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 390-401.
    7. Liu, Lirong & Huang, Guohe & Baetz, Brian & Guan, Yuru & Zhang, Kaiqiang, 2020. "Multi-Dimensional Hypothetical Fuzzy Risk Simulation model for Greenhouse Gas mitigation policy development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    8. Y. R. Fan & G. H. Huang & Y. P. Li & X. Q. Wang & Z. Li, 2016. "Probabilistic Prediction for Monthly Streamflow through Coupling Stepwise Cluster Analysis and Quantile Regression Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5313-5331, November.
    9. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    10. Müller, Jonas & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2020. "Spatial projections of solar PV installations at subnational level: Accuracy testing of regression models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    11. Fant, Charles & Adam Schlosser, C. & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2016. "The impact of climate change on wind and solar resources in southern Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 556-564.
    12. Bart Sweerts & Stefan Pfenninger & Su Yang & Doris Folini & Bob Zwaan & Martin Wild, 2019. "Estimation of losses in solar energy production from air pollution in China since 1960 using surface radiation data," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(8), pages 657-663, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Beer & Radim Rybár & Jana Rybárová & Andrea Seňová & Vojtech Ferencz, 2021. "Numerical Analysis of Concentrated Solar Heaters for Segmented Heat Accumulators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Junaid Maqsood & Aitazaz A. Farooque & Farhat Abbas & Travis Esau & Xander Wang & Bishnu Acharya & Hassan Afzaal, 2022. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Project Reference Evapotranspiration Under Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 835-851, February.
    3. Wang, Bingqing & Li, Yongping & Huang, Guohe & Gao, Pangpang & Liu, Jing & Wen, Yizhuo, 2023. "Development of an integrated BLSVM-MFA method for analyzing renewable power-generation potential under climate change: A case study of Xiamen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    4. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Jun & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Chen, Jie & Xie, Kang & Liu, Zheyuan & Li, Xiao, 2022. "Contribution of complementary operation in adapting to climate change impacts on a large-scale wind–solar–hydro system: A case study in the Yalong River Basin, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    5. Ghanim, Marrwa S. & Farhan, Ammar A., 2023. "Projected patterns of climate change impact on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of Iraq," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 338-346.
    6. Yang, Zhikai & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Deli & Ming, Bo & Li, He & Xia, Qian, 2021. "Sizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower plant considering the effects of climate change: A case study in the Longyangxia of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    7. Pezalla, Simon & Obringer, Renee, 2023. "Evaluating the household-level climate-electricity nexus across three cities through statistical learning techniques," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Barckholtz, Timothy A. & Taylor, Kevin M. & Narayanan, Sundar & Jolly, Stephen & Ghezel-Ayagh, Hossein, 2022. "Molten carbonate fuel cells for simultaneous CO2 capture, power generation, and H2 generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    9. Zhang, Kai & Yin, Kedong & Yang, Wendong, 2022. "Predicting bioenergy power generation structure using a newly developed grey compositional data model: A case study in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 695-711.
    10. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    11. Lan, Xinyao & Jin, Jiahui & Xu, Beibei & Chen, Diyi & Egusquiza, Mònica & Kim, Jin-Hyuk & Egusquiza, Eduard & Jafar, Nejadali & Xu, Lin & Kuang, Yuan, 2022. "Physical model test and parametric optimization of a hydroelectric generating system with a coaxial shaft surge tank," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 880-899.
    12. Pierre-Antoine Muselli & Jean-Nicolas Antoniotti & Marc Muselli, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Gaseous Hydrogen (H 2 ) Potential Produced by Photovoltaic Electrolysis for Stand-Alone or Grid Applications in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Qiu, Tianzhi & Wang, Lunche & Lu, Yunbo & Zhang, Ming & Qin, Wenmin & Wang, Shaoqiang & Wang, Lizhe, 2022. "Potential assessment of photovoltaic power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    14. Wang, Fayuan & Wang, Rong & He, Zhili, 2021. "The impact of environmental pollution and green finance on the high-quality development of energy based on spatial Dubin model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dutta, Riya & Chanda, Kironmala & Maity, Rajib, 2022. "Future of solar energy potential in a changing climate across the world: A CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 819-829.
    2. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Huang, Guanghui & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Hengzi, 2020. "Spatial scale effects on retrieval accuracy of surface solar radiation using satellite data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    3. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    4. Zuluaga, Cristian Felipe & Avila-Diaz, Alvaro & Justino, Flavio B. & Martins, Fernando Ramos & Ceron, Wilmar L., 2022. "The climate change perspective of photovoltaic power potential in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 1019-1031.
    5. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    6. Phuong Minh Khuong & Russell McKenna & Wolf Fichtner, 2020. "A Cost-Effective and Transferable Methodology for Rooftop PV Potential Assessment in Developing Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-46, May.
    7. Suomalainen, Kiti & Wen, Le & Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Climate change impact on the cost of decarbonisation in a hydro-based power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    8. Leirpoll, Malene Eldegard & Næss, Jan Sandstad & Cavalett, Otavio & Dorber, Martin & Hu, Xiangping & Cherubini, Francesco, 2021. "Optimal combination of bioenergy and solar photovoltaic for renewable energy production on abandoned cropland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 45-56.
    9. Silva Herran, Diego & Tachiiri, Kaoru & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2019. "Global energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 119-131.
    10. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Yao, Ling, 2021. "Hierarchical identification of solar radiation zones in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Sawadogo, Windmanagda & Bliefernicht, Jan & Fersch, Benjamin & Salack, Seyni & Guug, Samuel & Diallo, Belko & Ogunjobi, Kehinde.O. & Nakoulma, Guillaume & Tanu, Michael & Meilinger, Stefanie & Kunstma, 2023. "Hourly global horizontal irradiance over West Africa: A case study of one-year satellite- and reanalysis-derived estimates vs. in situ measurements," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Gallaher, Adam & Graziano, Marcello & Fiaschetti, Maurizio, 2021. "Legacy and shockwaves: A spatial analysis of strengthening resilience of the power grid in Connecticut," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Libo Zhang & Qian Du & Dequn Zhou, 2021. "Grid Parity Analysis of China’s Centralized Photovoltaic Generation under Multiple Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, March.
    14. Hirt, Léon F. & Sahakian, Marlyne & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "What subnational imaginaries for solar PV? The case of the Swiss energy transition," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Nathalie Spittler & Ganna Gladkykh & Arnaud Diemer & Brynhildur Davidsdottir, 2019. "Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development," Post-Print hal-02127724, HAL.
    16. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    17. Woo-Gyun Shin & Ju-Young Shin & Hye-Mi Hwang & Chi-Hong Park & Suk-Whan Ko, 2022. "Power Generation Prediction of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic System with Colored Modules Using Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, April.
    18. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    19. Yan Lu & Haikun Wang & Qin’geng Wang & Yanyan Zhang & Yiyong Yu & Yu Qian, 2017. "Global anthropogenic heat emissions from energy consumption, 1965–2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 459-468, December.
    20. Lan, Haifeng & Gou, Zhonghua & Yang, Linchuan, 2020. "House price premium associated with residential solar photovoltaics and the effect from feed-in tariffs: A case study of Southport in Queensland, Australia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 907-916.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:280:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920313581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.