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Assessment of future photovoltaic power potential across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the perspective of energy demand

Author

Listed:
  • Duan, Meixia
  • Gao, Miaoni
  • Li, Han
  • Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
  • Jiang, Han
  • Jiang, Tong

Abstract

In response to the growing energy demand and the need to support green development, this study investigates whether climate-induced declines in solar radiation can still support photovoltaic (PV) development. We assess the PV technical potential of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on solar resources and land suitability, and estimates its capacity to meet future energy demand. According to the national standard for solar energy, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is classified as “Very Abundant” in solar resources. From 1961 to 2023, annual solar radiation declined and is projected to continue decreasing through the 21st century. However, the solar resource stability favorable for PV development is expected to improve. Optimal areas for PV deployment, considering terrain, land use, and nature reserves, are mainly located in the Qaidam Basin and southwestern Tibet. Due to grassland loss and forest expansion, the land suitability for PV deployment is projected to decrease across most areas. In 2023, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's PV technical potential was estimated at 9.73 trillion kWh, projected to reach 10.92–11.00 trillion kWh by 2030, fully meeting China's total electricity demand, and 10.86–11.07 trillion kWh by 2060, meeting approximately 63.9 % ∼ 65.1 %. Under low greenhouse gas emission scenario, increased solar radiation and improved land suitability are projected to result in a 1.3 % to 2.6 % higher technical potential by the end of the century compared to other scenarios. These findings offer critical insights to support China's PV development and energy transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Meixia & Gao, Miaoni & Li, Han & Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. & Jiang, Han & Jiang, Tong, 2025. "Assessment of future photovoltaic power potential across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the perspective of energy demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 402(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:402:y:2025:i:pa:s0306261925015843
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126854
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