Mapping development potential and priority zones for utility-scale photovoltaic on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Sustainable renewable energy is a critical goal of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. The scientific and rational development of solar power in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is vital for China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. However, more accurate, high spatial resolution assessments are needed to evaluate the utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) development potential on the QTP. To address this, we integrated geographical and technical potentials into a unified framework for assessing PV development potential. Using the spatial multi-criteria decision analysis technique, supported by the Bayesian Best-Worst method, we generated a 30-m suitability map for assessing geographical and technical potentials, along with priority zones. We found that approximately 35.22 % of the study area is suitable for utility-scale PV development, mainly concentrated in the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai and the northern Tibet Plateau in Xizang. The estimated PV technical potential for highly suitable and suitable classes is approximately 42.34 million GWh/a, which is equivalent to reduction of approximately 31.43 billion t/a of carbon emissions. We also formulated four priority development strategies using a spatially explicit model to meet the urgent 2030 target for utility-scale PV installations. Moreover, validation of existing PV projects and sensitivity analysis were conducted, confirming the accuracy and robustness of the results. This study provides practical guidance for informed decision-making by the government, investors, and stakeholders.