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A multi-scale model for renewable portfolio standard-driven provincial energy planning in China

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  • Liao, Fengjie
  • Liang, Ying
  • Zhou, Chenxi
  • Fan, Bi
  • Qin, Quande

Abstract

Given the significant mismatch between renewable resource endowments and power demand among provinces, coordinated planning of renewable energy development become crucial. This study develops a multi-scale optimization model to investigate provincial renewable energy planning strategies under Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets during 2020–2040. The model uniquely integrates three spatial scales: individual provincial power systems, inter-provincial transmission networks, and national renewable energy deployment targets. This model simultaneously optimizes: (1) provincial generation mix considering local resource availability and demand patterns, (2) inter-provincial power exchange capabilities based on existing and planned transmission infrastructure, and (3) energy storage deployment to enhance system flexibility. Key findings reveal that: (1) meeting provincial RPS targets requires wind and solar power to constitute 59 % of national installed capacity by 2040; (2) strengthening power exchange capacity between Central China provinces is crucial, particularly for alleviating Hubei's power export pressure; (3) energy storage systems show increasing effectiveness in promoting renewable integration under higher RPS targets, but advancements in cost-effective storage technologies are needed to improve overall economics; (4) coordinating total RPS targets with non-hydro RPS targets is essential to avoid cost increases and resource waste resulting from frequent RE power exchanges.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao, Fengjie & Liang, Ying & Zhou, Chenxi & Fan, Bi & Qin, Quande, 2025. "A multi-scale model for renewable portfolio standard-driven provincial energy planning in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:254:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125013163
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123654
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