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Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenyu Zhuo

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Ershun Du

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Ning Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Chris P. Nielsen

    (Harvard University)

  • Xi Lu

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Jinyu Xiao

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization)

  • Jiawei Wu

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization)

  • Chongqing Kang

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

The Chinese government has set long-term carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) development goals for the power sector. Despite a precipitous decline in the costs of RE technologies, the external costs of renewable intermittency and the massive investments in new RE capacities would increase electricity costs. Here, we develop a power system expansion model to comprehensively evaluate changes in the electricity supply costs over a 30-year transition to carbon neutrality. RE supply curves, operating security constraints, and the characteristics of various generation units are modelled in detail to assess the cost variations accurately. According to our results, approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in the power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 9.6 CNY¢/kWh. The major cost shift would result from the substantial investments in RE capacities, flexible generation resources, and network expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenyu Zhuo & Ershun Du & Ning Zhang & Chris P. Nielsen & Xi Lu & Jinyu Xiao & Jiawei Wu & Chongqing Kang, 2022. "Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30747-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30747-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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