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Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenyu Zhuo

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Ershun Du

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Ning Zhang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Chris P. Nielsen

    (Harvard University)

  • Xi Lu

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Jinyu Xiao

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization)

  • Jiawei Wu

    (Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization)

  • Chongqing Kang

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

The Chinese government has set long-term carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) development goals for the power sector. Despite a precipitous decline in the costs of RE technologies, the external costs of renewable intermittency and the massive investments in new RE capacities would increase electricity costs. Here, we develop a power system expansion model to comprehensively evaluate changes in the electricity supply costs over a 30-year transition to carbon neutrality. RE supply curves, operating security constraints, and the characteristics of various generation units are modelled in detail to assess the cost variations accurately. According to our results, approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in the power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 9.6 CNY¢/kWh. The major cost shift would result from the substantial investments in RE capacities, flexible generation resources, and network expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenyu Zhuo & Ershun Du & Ning Zhang & Chris P. Nielsen & Xi Lu & Jinyu Xiao & Jiawei Wu & Chongqing Kang, 2022. "Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30747-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30747-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Pan, Xunzhang & Ma, Xueqing & Zhang, Yanru & Shao, Tianming & Peng, Tianduo & Li, Xiang & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2023. "Implications of carbon neutrality for power sector investments and stranded coal assets in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    5. He, Zhenglei & Liu, Chang & Wang, Yutao & Wang, Xu & Man, Yi, 2023. "Optimal operation of wind-solar-thermal collaborative power system considering carbon trading and energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    6. Jiawei Wu & Jinyu Xiao & Jinming Hou & Xunyan Lyu, 2023. "Development Potential Assessment for Wind and Photovoltaic Power Energy Resources in the Main Desert–Gobi–Wilderness Areas of China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Ma, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2023. "Planning China’s non-deterministic energy system (2021–2060) to achieve carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    9. Yani Ouyang & Wei Zhao & Haifeng Wang & Wenyong Wang, 2022. "A Multiple Time Scales Rolling Coordinative Dispatching Method for an Island Microgrid with High Proportion Tidal Current Energy Access and Demand Response Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Meng, Yan & Fan, Shuai & Shen, Yu & Xiao, Jucheng & He, Guangyu & Li, Zuyi, 2023. "Transmission and distribution network-constrained large-scale demand response based on locational customer directrix load for accommodating renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    11. Zengkai Zhang & Jiaoyan Li & Dabo Guan, 2023. "Value chain carbon footprints of Chinese listed companies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Jiehui Yuan & Wenli Yuan & Juan Yuan & Zhihong Liu & Jia Liao & Xunmin Ou, 2023. "Policy Recommendations for Distributed Solar PV Aiming for a Carbon-Neutral Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Xizhe Yan & Dan Tong & Yixuan Zheng & Yang Liu & Shaoqing Chen & Xinying Qin & Chuchu Chen & Ruochong Xu & Jing Cheng & Qinren Shi & Dongsheng Zheng & Kebin He & Qiang Zhang & Yu Lei, 2024. "Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    14. Minde An & Ronald G. Prinn & Luke M. Western & Xingchen Zhao & Bo Yao & Jianxin Hu & Anita L. Ganesan & Jens Mühle & Ray F. Weiss & Paul B. Krummel & Simon O’Doherty & Dickon Young & Matthew Rigby, 2024. "Sustained growth of sulfur hexafluoride emissions in China inferred from atmospheric observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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