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Impacts of stochastic forecast errors of renewable energy generation and load demands on microgrid operation

Author

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  • Chen, Yahong
  • Deng, Changhong
  • Yao, Weiwei
  • Liang, Ning
  • Xia, Pei
  • Cao, Peng
  • Dong, Yiwang
  • Zhang, Yuan-ao
  • Liu, Zhichao
  • Li, Dinglin
  • Chen, Man
  • Peng, Peng

Abstract

Evaluating the impacts related to stochastic forecast errors (SFE) of renewable energy generation and load demands on the operation of micro grid is an important issue. In previous researches, the negative effects of SFE on micro grid are mainly focusing on power quality, system control, and operation, etc. The objective of this study is to investigate how SFE affects the operation stability of energy storage system (ESS) from the perspective of the state of charge (SOC). To this end, novel SFE propagation and accumulation models are introduced. Efficient quantification models of impacts of SFE on the variance of SOC are presented. These models elucidate in detail the mechanism of ESS working from stable to unstable state due to SOC deviation. Then, some metrics are introduced to evaluate the impacts of SFE on service lifetime of units, the cycle life of ESS and operation economy of micro grid. Finally, illustrative numerical results are provided and compared using a self-developed new simulation program named MG-ROS, which can simulate the actual operation of micro grid under SFE.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yahong & Deng, Changhong & Yao, Weiwei & Liang, Ning & Xia, Pei & Cao, Peng & Dong, Yiwang & Zhang, Yuan-ao & Liu, Zhichao & Li, Dinglin & Chen, Man & Peng, Peng, 2019. "Impacts of stochastic forecast errors of renewable energy generation and load demands on microgrid operation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 442-461.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:133:y:2019:i:c:p:442-461
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2018.09.110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Khazaei, Ehsan & Jamaledini, Ashkan, 2019. "Optimal Operation of Islanded Microgrid Operation Based on the JAYA Optimization Algorithm," MPRA Paper 94279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mahdavi, Sadegh & Bayat, Alireza & Mirzaei, Farzad, 2019. "Economic Operation of Grid-Connected Microgrid By Multiverse Optimization Algorithm," MPRA Paper 95893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bayat, Alireza & Mahdavi, Sadegh & Mirzaei, Farzad, 2019. "Self- Supplied Microgrid Economic Scheduling Based on Modified Multiverse Evolutionary Algorithm," MPRA Paper 95892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mahdavi, Sadegh & Bayat, Alireza & Khazaei, Ehsan & Jamaledini, Ashkan, 2019. "Economic Operation of Self-Sustained Microgrid Optimal Operation by Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Based on Decomposition," MPRA Paper 95393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Khazaei, Ehsan & Jamaledini, Ashkan & Soltani, Ali, 2019. "Economic Self-Operation of Microgrids By Gravitational Emulation Local Search Algorithm," MPRA Paper 95895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jamaledini, Ashkan & Soltani, Ali & Khazaei, Ehsan, 2020. "Region Search Optimization Algorithm for Economic Energy Management of Grid-Connected Mode Microgrid," MPRA Paper 102094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jamaledini, Ashkan & Khazaei, Ehsan & Bitaraf, Mohammd, 2019. "Solving the Grid-Connected Microgrid Operation by JAYA Algorithm," MPRA Paper 94277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Adebayo Dosa & Oludolapo Akanni Olanrewaju & Felix Mora-Camino, 2025. "A Comprehensive Review of Hybrid Renewable Microgrids: Key Design Parameters, Optimization Techniques, and the Role of Demand Response in Enhancing System Flexibility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-40, September.
    10. Khazaei, Ehsan & Jamaledini, Ashkan & Soltani, Ali, 2020. "Economic Operation of Islanded Microgrids Based on the Region Search Evolutionary Algorithm," MPRA Paper 102092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jon Martinez-Rico & Ekaitz Zulueta & Unai Fernandez-Gamiz & Ismael Ruiz de Argandoña & Mikel Armendia, 2020. "Forecast Error Sensitivity Analysis for Bidding in Electricity Markets with a Hybrid Renewable Plant Using a Battery Energy Storage System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Jamaledini, Ashkan & Soltani, Ali & Khazaei, Ehsan, 2019. "Modified Charged System Search Algorithm for Economic Optimal Scheduling of Microgrid in Grid-Connected Mode," MPRA Paper 95896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hu, Jiaxiang & Hu, Weihao & Cao, Di & Sun, Xinwu & Chen, Jianjun & Huang, Yuehui & Chen, Zhe & Blaabjerg, Frede, 2024. "Probabilistic net load forecasting based on transformer network and Gaussian process-enabled residual modeling learning method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    14. Seruca, Manuel & Mota, Andrade & Rodrigues, David, 2019. "Solving the Economic Scheduling of Grid-Connected Microgrid Based on the Strength Pareto Approach," MPRA Paper 95391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jamaledini, Ashkan & Khazaei, Ehsan & Bitaraf, Mohammad, 2019. "Solving the Grid-Connected Microgrid Operation by Teaching Learning Based Optimization Algorithm," MPRA Paper 94276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Tavaro, Mehdi & Noori, Ehsan & Khazei, Ehsan & Bardideh, Farhad, 2019. "Microgrid Economic Operation Under Islanded Mode Using Charge System Search Algorithm," MPRA Paper 95911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bellenbaum, Julia & Höckner, Jonas & Weber, Christoph, 2022. "Designing flexibility procurement markets for congestion management – investigating two-stage procurement auctions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    18. Khazaei, Ehsan & Jamaledini, Ashkan, 2019. "Islanded Microgrid Operation Based on the Chaotic Crow Search Algorithm," MPRA Paper 94278, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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