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Informing risk-mitigation priorities using uncertainty measures derived from heterogeneous expert panels: A demonstration using foodborne pathogens

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  • Hoffmann, Sandra
  • Fischbeck, Paul
  • Krupnick, Alan
  • McWilliams, Michael

Abstract

This article looks at a new approach to expert elicitation that combines basic elements of conventional expert elicitation protocols with formal survey methods and larger, heterogeneous expert panels. This approach is appropriate where the hazard-estimation task requires a wide range of expertise and professional experience. The ability to judge when to rely on alternative data sources often is critical for successful risk management. We show how a large, heterogeneous sample can support internal validation of not only the experts’ assessments but also prior information that is based on limited historical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Sandra & Fischbeck, Paul & Krupnick, Alan & McWilliams, Michael, 2008. "Informing risk-mitigation priorities using uncertainty measures derived from heterogeneous expert panels: A demonstration using foodborne pathogens," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 687-698.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:93:y:2008:i:5:p:687-698
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. Dolan & J. Humphrey, 2000. "Governance and Trade in Fresh Vegetables: The Impact of UK Supermarkets on the African Horticulture Industry," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 147-176.
    2. Spriggs, John & Hobbs, Jill E. & Fearne, Andrew, 2000. "Beef Producer Attitudes To Coordination And Quality Assurance In Canada And The Uk," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    3. Harry Otway & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 1992. "Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis and Management: Process, Context, and Pitfalls," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 83-93, March.
    4. Golan, Elise H. & Roberts, Tanya & Salay, Elisabete & Caswell, Julie A. & Ollinger, Michael & Moore, Danna L., 2004. "Food Safety Innovation In The United States: Evidence From The Meat Industry," Agricultural Economic Reports 34083, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amanda P. Rehr & Mitchell J. Small & Paul S. Fischbeck & Patricia Bradley & William S. Fisher, 2014. "The role of scientific studies in building consensus in environmental decision making: a coral reef example," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 60-87, March.
    2. Hernandez-Perdomo, Elvis & Guney, Yilmaz & Rocco, Claudio M., 2019. "A reliability model for assessing corporate governance using machine learning techniques," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 220-231.
    3. Sandra Hoffmann & Paul Fischbeck & Alan Krupnick & Michael McWilliams, 2007. "Elicitation from Large, Heterogeneous Expert Panels: Using Multiple Uncertainty Measures to Characterize Information Quality for Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 91-109, June.

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