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How do stock prices respond to fundamental shocks in the case of the United States? Evidence from NASDAQ and DJIA

  • Jean Louis, Rosmy
  • Eldomiaty, Tarek
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    In this paper, we use both the Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices to test the robustness of Binswanger's (2004c) finding that US stock market dynamics are governed mostly by nonfundamental shocks or speculative bubbles after the 1982 debt crisis. We estimate a total of 72 SVAR models and 36 SVECM models. We determine that the findings are robust indeed and that fundamental shocks have become less and less important over the years, irrespective of which US stock market index is considered.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 50 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (August)
    Pages: 310-322

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:50:y:2010:i:3:p:310-322
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

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    1. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
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    3. Allen, D.E & Yang, W, 2004. "Do UK stock prices deviate from fundamentals?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 373-383.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
    5. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How do stock prices respond to fundamental shocks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 90-99, June.
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    7. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    8. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    9. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
    10. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2004. "Fundamental share prices and aggregate real output," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 651-661.
    11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    12. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
    13. Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
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