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Earnings business cycles: The Covid recession, recovery, and policy response

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  • Larrimore, Jeff
  • Mortenson, Jacob
  • Splinter, David

Abstract

Using a panel of tax data, we follow individuals’ earnings over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020—after the prior two recessions this measure decreased. This resulted from substantial Covid-era stimulus payments and unemployment insurance. With fiscal relief ending, bottom-quintile earnings in 2022 returned near pre-Covid levels. Among those starting in the top quintile, median real market earnings rose in 2020. Top-quintile earnings subsequently fell, although by less than around previous recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2023. "Earnings business cycles: The Covid recession, recovery, and policy response," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:225:y:2023:i:c:s0047272723001652
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104983
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Wages; Earnings; Stimulus checks; Unemployment insurance; Countercyclical policy; Government transfers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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