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Cigarette taxes, smoking, and health in the long run

Author

Listed:
  • Friedson, Andrew
  • Li, Moyan
  • Meckel, Katherine
  • Rees, Daniel I.
  • Sacks, Daniel W.

Abstract

Medical experts have argued forcefully that using cigarettes harms health, prompting the adoption of myriad anti-smoking policies. The association between smoking and mortality may, however, be influenced by unobserved factors, making it difficult to discern the underlying long-term causal relationship. In this study, we explore the effects of cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager, which are arguably exogenous, on adult smoking participation and mortality. A one-dollar increase in cigarette taxes experienced at ages 14–17 is associated with an 8 percent reduction in adult smoking participation and a 4 percent reduction in mortality. Mortality effects are most pronounced for heart disease and lung cancer.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedson, Andrew & Li, Moyan & Meckel, Katherine & Rees, Daniel I. & Sacks, Daniel W., 2023. "Cigarette taxes, smoking, and health in the long run," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:222:y:2023:i:c:s0047272723000592
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2023.104877
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Friedson & Moyan Li & Katherine Meckel & Daniel I. Rees & Daniel W. Sacks, 2024. "Exposure to cigarette taxes as a teenager and the persistence of smoking into adulthood," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 1962-1988, September.
    2. Park, Mingyeong & Son, Hyelim, 2025. "Intensity Matters: Heterogeneous impact of cigarette tax reform on drinking behaviors by smoking intensity," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    3. Tenbensel, Tim & Cumming, Jacqueline & Willing, Esther, 2023. "The 2022 restructure of Aotearoa New Zealand's health system: Will it succeed in advancing equity where others have failed?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Schindler, Yannick & Scott, Andrew J., 2025. "The macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    5. Vinish Shrestha, 2025. "Revisiting the effects of cigarette taxation on smoking outcomes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1429-1475, March.
    6. Lauren Hoehn-Velasco & Michael F. Pesko & Serena Phillips, 2023. "The Long-Term Impact of in Utero Cigarette Taxes on Adult Prenatal Smoking," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 605-648.
    7. Steffens, Camila & Pereda, Paula Carvalho, 2025. "Dynamic responses to smoking bans: Evidence from young adults in a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Alireza Olyaeemanesh & Amirhossein Takian & Mohammad Effatpanah & Mohammad Mehdi Nasehi & Zahra Shahali & Sahar Kargar & Mohammadreza Mobinizadeh & Efat Mohamadi, 2025. "Key indicators for evaluating Iran’s health insurance performance," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Lee, Youngju & Park, Minsung, 2026. "The effect of cigarette prices on insurance premiums: Evidence from cigarette tax increase in South Korea," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1064-1076.
    10. Michael E. Darden & Reginald B. Hebert & Michael F. Pesko & Samuel Sturm, 2025. "Cigarette Taxes and the Household Budget," NBER Working Papers 33746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Schindler, Yannick & Scott, Andrew J., 2025. "The macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128627, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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