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Smoking and Mortality: New Evidence from a Long Panel

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  • Michael Darden

    (Department of Economics, Tulane University)

  • Donna B. Gilleskie

    (Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Koleman Strumpf

    (School of Business, University of Kansas)

Abstract

Using data from Framingham Heart Study participants interviewed and examined at frequent intervals over much of their adult lifetime, we discover a relationship between smoking and mortality that differs significantly in magnitude from findings in the medical and epidemiological literature. We attribute the finding of smaller deleterious health impacts of smoking to a failure by previous studies to appropriately account for the non- random nature of lifetime smoking patterns and health histories. We provide causal and consistent estimates of the expected longevity consequences of current smoking, smoking cessation, smoking duration, and smoking experience by jointly modeling individual health heterogeneity, by including supply-side factors such as cigarette advertising and prices, and by allowing for permanent and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity in a flexible yet comprehensive multiple equation joint estimation procedure. We simulate our estimated empirical model under a variety of lifetime smoking patterns, and we compare the resulting mortality differences to the epidemiological literature that treats smoking behavior as random. Our results suggest that difference-in-means statistics significantly overstate the expected longevity loss from various patterns of lifetime smoking. For comparison, the (biased) unconditional difference-in-means in age of death between lifelong smokers and nonsmokers is 9.3 years in our research sample, while simulations from our estimated dynamic model suggest the difference is only 4.3 years. Additionally, our results examine the importance of smoking cessation and relapse avoidance.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Darden & Donna B. Gilleskie & Koleman Strumpf, 2015. "Smoking and Mortality: New Evidence from a Long Panel," Working Papers 1503, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tul:wpaper:1503
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lester G. Telser, 1962. "Advertising and Cigarettes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 471-471.
    2. Jonathan Gruber & Botond Köszegi, 2001. "Is Addiction "Rational"? Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1261-1303.
    3. Schneider, Lynne & Klein, Benjamin & Murphy, Kevin M, 1981. "Governmental Regulation of Cigarette Health Information," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 575-612, December.
    4. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627, Elsevier.
    5. David Merriman, 2010. "The Micro-geography of Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Littered Cigarette Packs in Chicago," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 61-84, May.
    6. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Savelyev, Peter A. & Ward, Benjamin C. & Krueger, Robert F. & McGue, Matt, 2022. "Health endowments, schooling allocation in the family, and longevity: Evidence from US twins," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Donald S. Kenkel & Alan D. Mathios & Hua Wang, 2020. "E-Cigarettes and Respiratory Disease: A Replication, Extension, and Future Directions," NBER Working Papers 27507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Feng Liu & Hua Wang, 2017. "Behavioral Welfare Economics and FDA Tobacco Regulations," Advances in Health Economics and Health Services Research, in: Human Capital and Health Behavior, volume 25, pages 143-179, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Friedson, Andrew & Li, Moyan & Meckel, Katherine & Rees, Daniel I. & Sacks, Daniel W., 2023. "Cigarette taxes, smoking, and health in the long run," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. Strulik, Holger, 2019. "An economic theory of depression and its impact on health behavior and longevity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 269-287.
    6. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Smoking kills: An economic theory of addiction, health deficit accumulation, and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-12.
    7. Friedson, Andrew I. & Rees, Daniel I., 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Smoking in the Long Run," IZA Discussion Papers 13252, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Michael E. Darden & Robert Kaestner, 2022. "Smoking, selection, and medical care expenditures," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 251-285, June.
    9. Darden, Michael E., 2021. "Cities and Smoking," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    10. Maryam Dilmaghani, 2022. "The link between smoking, drinking and wages: Health, workplace social capital or discrimination?," Industrial Relations Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 160-183, March.
    11. Darden, Michael E. & Hotchkiss, Julie L. & Melinda Pitts, M., 2021. "The dynamics of the smoking wage penalty," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Michael A. Catalano & Donna B. Gilleskie, 2021. "Impacts of local public smoking bans on smoking behaviors and tobacco smoke exposure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 1719-1744, August.
    13. Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren & Pesko, Michael & Phillips, Serena, 2022. "The Long-Term Impact of In-Utero Cigarette Taxes on Adult Prenatal Smoking," IZA Discussion Papers 15656, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. White, Matthew N., 2023. "Self-reported health status and latent health dynamics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Li, Chunxiao & Gilleskie, Donna B., 2021. "The influence of endogenous behaviors among social pairs: Social interaction effects of smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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