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Smoking initiation and the iron law of demand

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  • Lillard, Dean R.
  • Molloy, Eamon
  • Sfekas, Andrew

Abstract

We show, with three longitudinal datasets, that cigarette taxes and prices affect smoking initiation decisions. Evidence from longitudinal studies is mixed but generally find that initiation does not vary with price or tax. We show that the lack of statistical significance partly results because of limited policy variation in the time periods studied, truncated behavioral windows, or mis-assignment of price and tax rates in retrospective data (which occurs when one has no information about respondents’ prior state or region of residence). Our findings highlight issues relevant to initiation behavior generally, particularly those for which individuals’ responses to policy changes may be noisy or small in magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Lillard, Dean R. & Molloy, Eamon & Sfekas, Andrew, 2013. "Smoking initiation and the iron law of demand," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 114-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:32:y:2013:i:1:p:114-127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.08.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Smoking initiation; Cigarette price elasticity; Cigarette tax elasticity; Chronological behavioral windows; Measurement error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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