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Cigarette Taxes, Smoking, and Health in the Long-Run

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew I. Friedson
  • Moyan Li
  • Katherine Meckel
  • Daniel I. Rees
  • Daniel W. Sacks

Abstract

Medical experts have argued forcefully that using cigarettes harms health, prompting the adoption of myriad anti-smoking policies. The association between smoking and mortality may, however, be driven by unobserved factors, making it difficult to discern the underlying long-term causal relationship. In this study, we explore the effects of cigarette taxes experienced as a teenager, which are arguably exogenous, on adult smoking participation and mortality. A one-dollar increase in teenage cigarette taxes is associated with an 8 percent reduction in adult smoking participation and a 6 percent reduction in mortality. Mortality effects are most pronounced for heart disease and lung cancer.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew I. Friedson & Moyan Li & Katherine Meckel & Daniel I. Rees & Daniel W. Sacks, 2021. "Cigarette Taxes, Smoking, and Health in the Long-Run," NBER Working Papers 29145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29145
    Note: CH EH PE
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Friedson & Moyan Li & Katherine Meckel & Daniel I. Rees & Daniel W. Sacks, 2024. "Exposure to cigarette taxes as a teenager and the persistence of smoking into adulthood," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 1962-1988, September.
    2. Tenbensel, Tim & Cumming, Jacqueline & Willing, Esther, 2023. "The 2022 restructure of Aotearoa New Zealand's health system: Will it succeed in advancing equity where others have failed?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Vinish Shrestha, 2025. "Revisiting the effects of cigarette taxation on smoking outcomes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 1429-1475, March.
    4. Schindler, Yannick & Scott, Andrew J., 2025. "The macroeconomic impact of chronic disease in the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128627, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Park, Mingyeong & Son, Hyelim, 2025. "Intensity Matters: Heterogeneous impact of cigarette tax reform on drinking behaviors by smoking intensity," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    6. Lauren Hoehn-Velasco & Michael F. Pesko & Serena Phillips, 2023. "The Long-Term Impact of in Utero Cigarette Taxes on Adult Prenatal Smoking," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 605-648.
    7. Steffens, Camila & Pereda, Paula Carvalho, 2025. "Dynamic responses to smoking bans: Evidence from young adults in a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Michael E. Darden & Reginald B. Hebert & Michael F. Pesko & Samuel Sturm, 2025. "Cigarette Taxes and the Household Budget," NBER Working Papers 33746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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