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How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?

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  • Gaibulloev, Khusrav
  • Hou, Dongfang
  • Sandler, Todd

Abstract

This paper distinguishes a terrorist group’s survivability from its success. Terrorist groups succeed if they join the political process or achieve some of their goals. Based on a sample of 470 terrorist groups, we first estimate the determinants of groups’ ending and, conditional on their demise, we identify factors conducive to their success. We find that religious fundamentalist terrorist groups survive longer than left-wing, nationalist/separatist, or right-wing groups; but religious groups are less apt than other ideologies to attain their objectives or to join the political process. Larger groups survive longer and possess a better success prognosis. Within-country group competition is conducive to survival, but harmful to success. Controls include groups’ goals, groups’ strategic choices, and home country’s characteristics. Robustness tests disaggregate our success measure, provide panel estimates, and incorporate other controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Hou, Dongfang & Sandler, Todd, 2020. "How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:65:y:2020:i:c:s0176268020300835
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101935
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    2. Khusrav Gaibulloev & James A. Piazza & Todd Sandler, 2024. "Do Failed or Weak States Favor Resident Terrorist Groups’ Survival?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(5), pages 823-848, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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